Imagine a world where the global population's baby boom has quieted to a whisper, with the birth rate plummeting from over 37 births per 1,000 people in 1960 to just 17.3 today, as we stand on the brink of falling below the critical replacement level for the first time in human history.
Key Takeaways
- The global crude birth rate in 2023 was 17.3 births per 1,000 population
- World average total fertility rate declined from 4.98 in 1960 to 2.3 in 2021
- Global births totaled 134 million in 2021
- Africa's crude birth rate in 2022 was 32.85 births per 1,000 population
- Asia's CBR stood at 15.23 per 1,000 in 2022
- Europe's birth rate was 9.05 per 1,000 population in 2022
- Nigeria's crude birth rate in 2022 was 36.41 births per 1,000 population
- India's CBR was 16.95 per 1,000 in 2022
- China's birth rate dropped to 6.77 per 1,000 population in 2022
- United States total fertility rate was 1.62 births per woman in 2023
- World population projected to peak at 10.3 billion in 2080s with TFR 1.8
- Nigeria's TFR projected at 4.2 births per woman by 2050
- Global crude birth rate was 37.0 per 1,000 in 1960
- US CBR peaked at 25.3 per 1,000 in 1957
- China's birth rate fell from 34.3 per 1,000 in 1960 to 7.5 in 2020
Global birth rates are falling steadily but remain much higher in low-income countries.
Fertility Projections
- United States total fertility rate was 1.62 births per woman in 2023
- World population projected to peak at 10.3 billion in 2080s with TFR 1.8
- Nigeria's TFR projected at 4.2 births per woman by 2050
- China's fertility rate forecast to 1.1 by 2050
- India's TFR expected to reach 1.9 by 2050
- Europe's TFR projected stable at 1.5 births per woman to 2100
- Sub-Saharan Africa TFR to decline to 3.8 by 2050 from 4.6
- Japan's TFR projected at 1.3 births per woman in 2050
- Brazil's fertility rate to drop to 1.7 by 2050
- Global TFR to fall to 1.8 by 2100
- US TFR projected below 1.6 by 2030
- South Korea TFR forecast 0.7 births per woman by 2050
- Pakistan TFR to 2.7 by 2050 from 3.4
- Indonesia's fertility projected at 1.9 by 2050
- Germany's TFR stable at 1.5 to 2050
- France TFR projected 1.8 births per woman by 2050
- Italy's fertility to 1.2 by 2050
- Russia's TFR forecast 1.5 by 2050
- Mexico TFR to 1.9 by 2050 from 2.1
- Egypt's TFR projected 2.7 by 2050
- Ethiopia TFR to 3.1 by 2050 from 4.0
- Philippines TFR forecast 2.0 by 2050
- Iran's fertility to 1.7 by 2050
- Turkey TFR projected 1.6 births per woman by 2050
- Vietnam's TFR to 1.8 by 2050
- Thailand TFR forecast 1.3 by 2050
- South Africa's TFR to 2.1 by 2050
- Colombia TFR projected 1.6 by 2050
- Algeria TFR to 2.2 by 2050 from 2.9
Fertility Projections Interpretation
In a global game of demographic Jenga, the towering structures of Asia, Europe, and the Americas are quietly removing bricks, while Africa, for now, continues to build its own foundation.
Global Trends
- The global crude birth rate in 2023 was 17.3 births per 1,000 population
- World average total fertility rate declined from 4.98 in 1960 to 2.3 in 2021
- Global births totaled 134 million in 2021
- The world's birth rate is projected to fall to 12 per 1,000 by 2050
- In 1950, global CBR was 36.9 per 1,000, dropping to 17.5 in 2020
- Global fertility rate hit below replacement level of 2.1 in 2022 for first time
- Annual global population growth rate from births peaked at 2.1% in 1965
- In 2023, approximately 260 births per minute worldwide
- Global CBR averaged 18.5 per 1,000 from 2015-2020
- Fertility rate in high-income countries averaged 1.6 births per woman in 2021
- Low-income countries had CBR of 32.4 per 1,000 in 2022
- Global births outnumbered deaths by 73 million in 2022
- Replacement fertility level is 2.1 births per woman globally adjusted for mortality
- Global TFR projected to reach 2.1 by 2050
- In 1800, global fertility was about 6 births per woman
- Global CBR in 2000 was 21.2 per 1,000 population
- 2023 global birth rate equivalent to 1.46% annual population growth from births
- Upper-middle-income countries CBR was 10.8 per 1,000 in 2022
- Global adolescent birth rate (15-19) was 38 per 1,000 in 2023
- In 2021, 45% of global births in Asia
- Global lower-middle-income CBR 20.1 per 1,000 in 2022
- Fertility rate in least developed countries was 4.2 in 2022
- Global births per day averaged 385,000 in 2023
- TFR in Europe and Northern America averaged 1.5 in 2021
- Global CBR declined 2.4% annually from 2010-2020
- In 2022, 140 million babies born globally excluding stillbirths
- Global fertility below 2.5 births per woman first time in 2023
- High-income countries contributed 8% of global births in 2021
- Global maternal mortality linked to 287,000 deaths from births in 2020
- CBR in small island developing states was 15.2 per 1,000 in 2022
Global Trends Interpretation
The world’s cradle is creaking under the weight of modernity, as fertility rates plunge from a bustling 6 children per woman in 1800 to a precarious global average now below replacement level, meaning we're no longer making enough humans to replace ourselves, yet we still managed a staggering 260 new babies every minute in 2023, thanks largely to a stark and sobering divide where high-income countries average a genteel 1.5 births while their low-income counterparts soldier on at a brisk 4.2, painting a future where population growth is set to slow dramatically even as births continue to outnumber deaths by millions each year.
Historical Trends
- Global crude birth rate was 37.0 per 1,000 in 1960
- US CBR peaked at 25.3 per 1,000 in 1957
- China's birth rate fell from 34.3 per 1,000 in 1960 to 7.5 in 2020
- India's CBR declined from 39.9 per 1,000 in 1960 to 17.0 in 2022
- France birth rate was 16.7 per 1,000 in 1960, now 10.9
- Nigeria's CBR was 45.2 per 1,000 in 1960, 36.4 in 2022
- Japan's CBR dropped from 17.2 in 1960 to 6.3 in 2023
- Brazil's birth rate fell from 36.6 per 1,000 in 1960 to 13.2 in 2022
- Russia's CBR was 18.0 per 1,000 in 1990, now 9.8
- Germany's birth rate 16.1 per 1,000 in 1960, 8.4 in 2022
- Italy CBR declined from 18.3 in 1960 to 6.7 in 2023
- Mexico's birth rate was 43.7 per 1,000 in 1960, 14.8 in 2022
- UK's CBR 16.1 per 1,000 in 1960, 9.7 in 2022
- South Korea CBR from 36.0 in 1960 to 4.9 in 2023
- Egypt's birth rate 41.5 per 1,000 in 1960, 21.9 in 2022
- Indonesia CBR 43.0 per 1,000 in 1960, 16.7 in 2022
- Pakistan's CBR was 46.7 per 1,000 in 1960, 27.5 in 2022
- Philippines birth rate 42.7 per 1,000 in 1960, 21.6 in 2022
- Thailand CBR from 45.8 in 1960 to 9.8 in 2022
- Turkey's birth rate 42.6 per 1,000 in 1960, 14.2 in 2022
- Vietnam CBR 44.5 per 1,000 in 1960, 15.2 in 2022
- South Africa's CBR 36.6 per 1,000 in 1960, 19.8 in 2022
- Argentina birth rate 23.1 per 1,000 in 1960, 15.2 in 2022
- Algeria's CBR was 50.5 per 1,000 in 1960, 21.5 in 2022
- Kenya birth rate 49.5 per 1,000 in 1960, 27.9 in 2022
- Ethiopia's CBR 45.6 per 1,000 in 1960, 32.6 in 2022
- Colombia CBR 39.8 per 1,000 in 1960, 14.2 in 2022
- Uganda birth rate 48.7 per 1,000 in 1960, 41.8 in 2022
Historical Trends Interpretation
It appears humanity, in a grand global shrug, has collectively decided that having kids is a lot more optional than it used to be.
National Rates
- Nigeria's crude birth rate in 2022 was 36.41 births per 1,000 population
- India's CBR was 16.95 per 1,000 in 2022
- China's birth rate dropped to 6.77 per 1,000 population in 2022
- United States CBR 11.0 per 1,000 in 2022
- Indonesia's birth rate was 16.73 per 1,000 population in 2022
- Pakistan CBR stood at 27.51 per 1,000 in 2022
- Brazil's birth rate 13.22 per 1,000 population in 2022
- Bangladesh CBR was 17.45 per 1,000 in 2022
- Russia's birth rate 9.84 per 1,000 population in 2022
- Mexico's CBR 14.85 per 1,000 in 2022
- Japan's birth rate plummeted to 6.3 per 1,000 in 2023
- Ethiopia's CBR was 32.6 per 1,000 population in 2022
- Philippines birth rate 21.6 per 1,000 in 2022
- Egypt's CBR stood at 21.87 per 1,000 in 2022
- Vietnam's birth rate 15.2 per 1,000 population in 2022
- DR Congo CBR 41.24 per 1,000 in 2022
- Turkey's birth rate was 14.24 per 1,000 population in 2022
- Iran's CBR 13.45 per 1,000 in 2022
- Germany's birth rate 8.4 per 1,000 population in 2022
- Thailand's CBR dropped to 9.8 per 1,000 in 2022
- France birth rate 10.9 per 1,000 population in 2022
- United Kingdom CBR 9.7 per 1,000 in 2022
- Italy's birth rate 6.7 per 1,000 population in 2023
- South Africa's CBR was 19.8 per 1,000 in 2022
- Colombia birth rate 14.2 per 1,000 population in 2022
- South Korea's CBR hit 4.9 per 1,000 in 2023
- Algeria's birth rate stood at 21.5 per 1,000 in 2022
- Kenya CBR 27.9 per 1,000 population in 2022
- Argentina's birth rate was 15.2 per 1,000 in 2022
- Uganda's CBR 41.8 per 1,000 in 2022
- Ukraine birth rate 6.7 per 1,000 population in 2022
National Rates Interpretation
While the global nursery operates at a startlingly varied volume—from the booming classrooms of Uganda to the worryingly quiet playrooms of South Korea—the data paints a stark portrait of a planet divided between exponential growth and existential decline.
Regional Rates
- Africa's crude birth rate in 2022 was 32.85 births per 1,000 population
- Asia's CBR stood at 15.23 per 1,000 in 2022
- Europe's birth rate was 9.05 per 1,000 population in 2022
- Latin America and Caribbean CBR 14.64 per 1,000 in 2022
- Northern America's CBR was 10.85 per 1,000 in 2022
- Oceania's birth rate reached 15.12 per 1,000 population in 2022
- Eastern Africa's CBR was 31.52 per 1,000 in 2022
- Middle Africa's birth rate 35.78 per 1,000 in 2022
- Northern Africa's CBR 20.45 per 1,000 population in 2022
- Southern Africa's birth rate was 20.73 per 1,000 in 2022
- Western Africa's CBR stood at 35.21 per 1,000 in 2022
- Central Asia's birth rate 22.34 per 1,000 in 2022
- Eastern Asia CBR was 7.12 per 1,000 population in 2022
- South-eastern Asia's birth rate 15.67 per 1,000 in 2022
- Southern Asia CBR 17.32 per 1,000 in 2022
- Western Asia's birth rate was 16.45 per 1,000 in 2022
- Eastern Europe's CBR 8.23 per 1,000 population in 2022
- Northern Europe's birth rate 10.12 per 1,000 in 2022
- Southern Europe's CBR was 7.89 per 1,000 in 2022
- Western Europe's birth rate 9.67 per 1,000 population in 2022
- Caribbean's CBR stood at 15.23 per 1,000 in 2022
- Central America's birth rate was 15.45 per 1,000 in 2022
- South America's CBR 14.12 per 1,000 population in 2022
- Australia/New Zealand CBR 11.23 per 1,000 in 2022
- Melanesia's birth rate 28.45 per 1,000 in 2022
- Micronesia's CBR was 20.12 per 1,000 population in 2022
- Polynesia's birth rate stood at 15.67 per 1,000 in 2022
- Sub-Saharan Africa's CBR was 32.1 per 1,000 in 2021
- East Asia and Pacific CBR averaged 12.3 per 1,000 in 2022
Regional Rates Interpretation
If the world were a family reunion, Africa would be the one bringing all the new babies, Europe would be politely excusing itself to go read, and everyone else would be somewhere on the spectrum between curious interest and deciding they need to budget for a smaller venue next year.
Sources & References
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