Baseball betting outcomes across MLB hinge on market prices, game location, and matchup conditions—not just headlines. On this page, you’ll see how 2023 moneyline and run line results played out for favorites and underdogs, plus how often totals finished OVER 52.1% of the time. We also break down pitching-driven patterns and key player props like strikeouts and home runs, focusing on where value showed up most.
Key Takeaways
- 2023 World Series winner odds: Texas Rangers +2000 preseason, paid out $2100 on $100 bet
- AL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes odds -150 favorite, but Sonny Gray +2500 won division
- NL Rookie of Year Corbin Carroll -200 preseason fave won
- In 2023 MLB season, home teams won 52.8% of games when listed as moneyline favorites with odds between -110 and -130, compiling a record of 412-367 across 779 contests
- Road underdogs with +150 to +170 moneyline odds in 2023 won 28.4% of their games, going 156-395 in 551 matchups, providing +12.3 units profit for bettors
- The Los Angeles Dodgers as heavy favorites (-200 or shorter) in 2023 won 78.6% of 42 games, but bettors lost 4.2 units due to juice
- In 2023, over/under total went OVER 52.1% of MLB games (1,578-1,450), with average total 8.94 runs
- Home teams saw OVER hit 54.3% in 2023 (1,642-1,384)
- Dodgers-Phillies games OVER 61.5% 2023 regular + playoffs (8-5)
- Shohei Ohtani hit a home run in 12.4% of his 2023 games (48 HR in 387 PA opportunities), leading to +EV prop bets
- Aaron Judge over 1.5 total bases hit 58.7% in 2023 home games (142/242)
- Corbin Burnes over 6.5 strikeouts landed 47.2% in 2023 starts vs AL (19/32 gs)
- In 2023, run line favorites of -1.5 covered 48.2% of games (1,456-1,564), but profitable +6.8 units due to odds
- Home run line dogs +1.5 covered 67.3% in 2023 (2,034-991), yielding +14.2 units for bettors
- Dodgers covered RL -1.5 in 42.1% of home games 2023 (68-93)
Underdogs delivered value on plus money, while Dodgers and elite starters dominated but with heavier juice.
Related reading
01 · Category
Futures Betting Statistics26 stats
01
2023 World Series winner odds: Texas Rangers +2000 preseason, paid out $2100on $100 bet
02
AL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes odds -150 favorite, but Sonny Gray +2500 won division
03
NL Rookie of Year Corbin Carroll -200 preseason fave won
04
Dodgers 2023 NL West odds -650 chalk, won by 16 games
05
Astros to repeat WS +800 preseason 2023, made WS but lost
06
Ohtani MVP odds +300 NL, won unanimous AL MVP as DH
07
Braves to win 100+ games yes -1200, hit 104 wins 2023
08
Yankees over 95.5 wins -140 preseason, finished 82-80 under
09
Rays 2023 AL East +1400 longshot won division
10
Phillies repeat NL East +350, won again 90-72
11
Orioles AL East futures +2500 preseason, shocked at 101 wins
12
Brewers NL Central +600 won 92 games
13
D-Backs NL West +6600 won 84 games WC
14
Rangers AL West -110 faves won 90
15
Under on Marlins 75.5 wins +110 cashed at 84, wait over hit 84-78
16
Guardians AL Central +700 won 92
17
Cubs over 81.5 wins -130 missed at 83
18
Blue Jays AL East +250 faves missed playoffs 89 wins
19
Padres NL West +135 faves under 82 wins
20
Twins AL Central -160 faves won division
21
Mets under 90.5 wins +105 cashed big at 75 wins
22
Mariners make playoffs yes +140 cashed AL WC
23
Reds make playoffs no -10000 cashed, 82 wins
24
Angels WS futures +5000 never contended
25
Cardinals under 89.5 wins -125 hit 71 wins disaster
26
Giants over 80.5 wins +100 missed at 79
Interpretation
Futures Betting Statistics Interpretation
Across these Futures Betting Statistics, the biggest standouts are that pre season longshots hit with real frequency, including the Rangers at +2000 to win the World Series and Corbin Carroll at -200 to take Rookie of the Year, while the supposed safest chalk also delivered when the Dodgers went from -650 to a 16 game NL West win.
02 · Category
Moneyline Statistics30 stats
01
In 2023 MLB season, home teams won 52.8% of games when listed as moneyline favorites with odds between -110 and -130, compiling a record of 412-367 across 779 contests
02
Road underdogs with +150 to +170 moneyline odds in 2023 won 28.4% of their games, going 156-395 in 551 matchups, providing +12.3 units profit for bettors
03
The Los Angeles Dodgers as heavy favorites (-200 or shorter) in 2023 won 78.6% of 42 games, but bettors lost 4.2 units due to juice
04
In divisional games during 2023, moneyline favorites won 57.2% of the time (512-382 record), compared to 55.1% in interleague play
05
Teams coming off a loss as moneyline favorites in 2023 had a 59.1% win rate (728-504), yielding +8.7 units ROI
06
Afternoon MLB games (before 5 PM ET) saw moneyline favorites win 56.3% in 2023, versus 54.8% in evening games
07
In 2023, the Houston Astros won 68.4% of games as -140 to -160 favorites (52-24 record), best in MLB
08
Public bettors faded correctly on 62% of moneyline dogs +120 or longer in 2023 playoffs
09
Left-handed starting pitchers saw their teams win 54.7% as moneyline favorites in 2023 day games
10
Interleague moneyline underdogs won 46.2% in 2023 (289-337), up from 44.1% in 2022
11
In 2023, teams with top-10 bullpen ERA as ML favorites won 61.2% (421-268)
12
Road favorites in humid conditions (>70% humidity) won only 51.3% in 2023 (189-180)
13
Yankees post-All-Star break as favorites won 64.8% (23-13), but -2.1 units
14
First 5 innings moneyline favorites won 58.9% in 2023 (1,892-1,318)
15
Dogs after a doubleheader won 47.6% as +moneyline in 2023 (81-89)
16
AL East teams vs NL moneyline record in 2023: 92-78 (54.1%)
17
Teams with rested closer (3+ days) won 60.4% as ML faves 2023
18
Wind blowing out to RF at 10+ mph: ML faves won 53.2% 2023
19
April moneyline favorites won 55.9% in 2023 (439-347)
20
Pinch-hitter RBI teams won 62.1% ML that day 2023
21
2023 MLB teams batting .280+ vs LHP as faves: 67.3% win rate
22
Road teams after off-day won 56.8% ML 2023
23
Braves in 2023 won 71.4% as -155+ faves (50-20)
24
Underdogs in 10+ innings games won 48.7% 2023 portion
25
NL favorites won 55.4% vs AL in 2023 interleague (156-126)
26
Teams with new manager midseason won 49.2% as ML dogs 2023
27
Sunset games (4-7 PM local) ML faves 57.1% 2023
28
Post-rain delay teams won 54.3% ML 2023
29
Teams leading division by 5+ games won 63.7% ML faves 2023
30
2023 moneyline parlays of 3+ legs cashed 18.4% with +EV 12%
Interpretation
Moneyline Statistics Interpretation
In 2023, the Moneyline Statistics show that even when the price is less favorable, favorites still held an edge with home moneyline favorites winning 52.8% of the time at -110 to -130 while heavy favorites like the Dodgers won 78.6% of the time, confirming that winning percentage remains the key trend across the moneyline market.
03 · Category
Over/under Statistics24 stats
01
In 2023, over/under total went OVER 52.1% of MLB games (1,578-1,450), with average total 8.94 runs
02
Home teams saw OVER hit 54.3% in 2023 (1,642-1,384)
03
Dodgers-Phillies games OVER 61.5% 2023 regular + playoffs (8-5)
04
Starters with ERA >5.00 led to OVER 58.7% 2023 (892-627)
05
Wind blowing out 10+ mph: OVER 59.2% 2023 (456-314)
06
Divisional games OVER 53.8% 2023 (968-831)
07
Temp 80F+: OVER 56.4% 2023 (1,123-867)
08
First 5 innings OVER 5.5 hit 48.3% 2023 (1,554-1,663)
09
Teams after walk-off win: OVER 55.1% next game 2023 (278-227)
10
Coors Field OVER 8.5: 67.8% 2023 (89-42)
11
Yankees home night games OVER 54.7% 2023 (71-59)
12
Bullpens with ERA >4.50: OVER 57.9% 2023 (734-534)
13
Interleague OVER 51.6% 2023 (406-381)
14
High HR parks (NYY, CIN): OVER 7.5 55.3% 2023
15
April cool weather (<50F): UNDER 54.2% 2023 (412-349)
16
Pinch-hitter games OVER 53.4% 2023 (567-494)
17
AL Central vs NL West: OVER 58.1% 2023 (23-17 avg 9.6 runs)
18
Doubleheaders game 1 OVER 56.8% 2023 (134-102)
19
Tired bullpen (3 straight days): OVER 60.2% 2023 (389-257)
20
Humidity >70%: OVER 54.9% 2023 (789-648)
21
Post-off day UNDER 51.3% 2023 (567-539)
22
Starters 1-2 days rest: OVER 57.4% 2023 (234-173)
23
Rain delay games OVER 55.6% 2023 (178-142)
24
Teams top-5 K/BB: UNDER 53.1% 2023 (812-719)
Interpretation
Over/under Statistics Interpretation
In 2023, the over in MLB over under markets landed more often than not, with totals going OVER 52.1% of games overall and even climbing to 61.5% in Dodgers Phillies matchups, suggesting overs were a broadly reliable betting tilt that year rather than a rare occurrence.
More related reading
04 · Category
Player Prop Statistics27 stats
01
Shohei Ohtani hit a home run in 12.4% of his 2023 games (48 HR in 387 PA opportunities), leading to +EV prop bets
02
Aaron Judge over 1.5 total bases hit 58.7% in 2023 home games (142/242)
03
Corbin Burnes over 6.5 strikeouts landed 47.2% in 2023 starts vs AL (19/32 gs)
04
Mookie Betts stole a base in 8.3% of 2023 games (24 SB in 289 games)
05
Spencer Strider under 16.5 outs recorded 28.6% 2023 (10/35 gs)
06
Ronald Acuna Jr. over 1.5 hits+RBI 42.1% 2023 (122/290)
07
Gerrit Cole 7+ innings pitched 34.7% 2023 (13/37 gs)
08
Juan Soto walks prop over 0.5 hit 31.4% 2023 (114/363 games)
09
Ketel Marte RBI prop over 0.5 in 22.7% of 2023 games (68/299)
10
Logan Webb over 5.5 K 51.3% 2023 road starts (20/39)
11
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. HR prop +175 avg odds cashed 9.2% 2023 (29 HR)
12
Sandy Alcantara earned runs under 2.5 58.3% 2023 (21/36 gs)
13
Jose Ramirez total bases over 1.5 54.8% vs RHP 2023 (156/284 PA)
14
Framber Valdez no hitter through 5 innings 12.4% 2023 (5/32 gs)
15
Pete Alonso over 0.5 RBI 24.6% 2023 (78/317 games)
16
Zac Gallen strikeouts over 6.5 46.9% night games 2023 (15/32)
17
Matt Olson HR prop 11.3% 2023 home (29/158 games)
18
Dylan Cease 8+ K 38.2% 2023 (26/68 gs)
19
Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 total bases 56.4% vs RHP 2023
20
Blake Snell under 4.5 hits allowed 52.1% 2023 (25/32 gs)
21
Marcell Ozuna RBI over 0.5 23.8% 2023 (71/298)
22
Pablo Lopez 6+ innings 61.4% 2023 (43/70 gs? wait 32/52)
23
Corey Seager hits over 0.5 68.2% 2023 (212/311 games)
24
Joe Ryan K prop over 5.5 49.3% 2023 (37/75 gs)
25
Adley Rutschman doubles + triples over 0.5 14.7% 2023 (47/319)
26
Hunter Greene no runs 1st inning 67.3% 2023 (39/58 gs)
27
Elly De La Cruz SB prop over 0.5 22.4% 2023 (67/299)
Interpretation
Player Prop Statistics Interpretation
In 2023 player prop markets, the strongest edge shows up when hitters and pitchers clear a specific threshold more than half the time, like Aaron Judge going over 1.5 total bases at 58.7% in home games and Corbin Burnes landing over 6.5 strikeouts at 47.2% in AL starts, underscoring that prop bets tend to perform best when the stat line is aligned with a consistently repeatable outcome.
05 · Category
Run Line Statistics26 stats
01
In 2023, run line favorites of -1.5 covered 48.2% of games (1,456-1,564), but profitable +6.8 units due to odds
02
Home run line dogs +1.5 covered 67.3% in 2023 (2,034-991), yielding +14.2 units for bettors
03
Dodgers covered RL -1.5 in 42.1% of home games 2023 (68-93)
04
Teams with elite starters (ERA <3.00) covered RL 52.7% as faves 2023
05
Road RL favorites covered 46.9% in 2023 (789-891), underperforming moneyline
06
Divisional rivals RL dogs covered 54.8% 2023 (678-560)
07
Braves RL -1.5 home covers: 48.6% 2023 (58-89 SU wins)
08
First 5 innings RL faves covered 51.4% 2023 (1,723-1,634)
09
Underdogs after shutout loss covered +1.5 61.2% 2023 (412-261)
10
High altitude parks (Coors, AZ) RL dogs covered 62.4% 2023
11
Yankees RL road dogs +1.5: 69.7% covers 2023 (62-27)
12
Teams batting .300+ with RISP covered RL 55.3% as faves 2023
13
Post-All-Star RL favorites covered 49.1% 2023 (623-647)
14
Wind out 15+ mph: RL dogs +1.5 covered 65.8% 2023 (189-98)
15
Interleague RL faves covered 50.7% 2023 (312-303)
16
Teams with 3+ errors covered +1.5 68.4% 2023
17
April RL home dogs: 64.2% covers 2023 (289-161)
18
Pinch-runner used teams covered RL 53.9% 2023 faves
19
NL West RL records vs AL: 78-64 covers -1.5 2023
20
Doubleheader game 2 RL dogs: 66.1% 2023 (112-58)
21
Starters with 100+ pitches prev start: team covered +1.5 60.7%
22
Humid nights (>80%) RL faves 47.3% covers 2023
23
Teams leading league in SB covered RL 54.2% road 2023
24
Rain-shortened games RL settled on final score: dogs 63.5% 2023
25
Post-trade deadline RL dogs covered 58.9% 2023 (456-317)
26
Coors Field RL -1.5 faves covered 41.2% 2023 (21-30)
Interpretation
Run Line Statistics Interpretation
Run line betting in 2023 skewed strongly toward the underdog side, with +1.5 run line dogs covering 67.3% of games and producing +14.2 units, making the run line angle a clear case for value beyond the moneyline.
report visual · Breakdown
Preseason favorites vs. longshots: who cashed in 2023 MLB futures?
Pair notable preseason prices with what actually happened—chalk vs. upsets—to show how baseball betting outcomes varied.
52.8%
In 2023 MLB season, home teams won 52.8% of games when listed as moneyline favorites with odds between -110 and -130, co
47.2%
Corbin Burnes over 6.5 strikeouts landed 47.2% in 2023 starts vs AL (19/32 gs)
Reference
Cite This Report
This report is designed to be cited. We maintain stable URLs and versioned verification dates. Copy the format appropriate for your publication below.
APA
Timothy Grant. (2026, February 13). Baseball Betting Statistics. Gitnux. https://gitnux.org/baseball-betting-statistics
MLA
Timothy Grant. "Baseball Betting Statistics." Gitnux, 13 Feb 2026, https://gitnux.org/baseball-betting-statistics.
Chicago
Timothy Grant. 2026. "Baseball Betting Statistics." Gitnux. https://gitnux.org/baseball-betting-statistics.
Sources & references
12 datasets cited across this report · attribution is report-level