Behind a growing wave of missed payments on car loans, especially among younger and subprime borrowers, the data paints a concerning picture: delinquency rates are climbing across nearly every metric, from the national 60+ day rate hitting a 14-year high to the staggering gap between prime and subprime borrowers.
Key Takeaways
- In Q4 2023, U.S. auto loan delinquency rate for 60+ days past due reached 4.25%, up 0.35 percentage points from Q4 2022
- As of September 2023, national 30-day auto delinquencies stood at 5.12%, reflecting a 12% year-over-year increase
- Q2 2024 data shows U.S. auto loan 90+ day delinquency at 1.87%, the highest since Q4 2010
- Subprime auto loans showed 9.87% delinquency rate (60+) in Q3 2023 nationally, up from 8.45% prior year
- Prime auto delinquency (60+) was 1.67% in Q4 2023, compared to subprime's 10.23%
- In Q2 2024, subprime auto 90+ delinquency hit 4.56%, vs prime 0.89%
- Auto loan holders aged 18-29 had 7.45% delinquency rate (60+) in Q3 2023
- Borrowers aged 30-39 showed 5.67% 60+ auto delinquency in 2023, per TransUnion
- Age 40-49 group auto 90+ delinquency at 3.89% Q2 2024
- California state auto delinquency (60+) at 4.89% in Q3 2023, highest in West
- Texas saw 5.67% auto 30+ delinquency Q2 2024, per Equifax
- Florida 90+ auto delinquency 3.45% in 2023 avg
- Auto delinquency rates rose 25% correlating with 4.1% unemployment in Q4 2023
- Inflation at 3.2% linked to 0.45 pp increase in auto 60+ delinquency Q3 2023
- Forecast: auto delinquency to hit 5.2% by Q4 2024 amid recession fears, S&P
Auto loan delinquencies are rising nationwide, especially among subprime borrowers.
Demographic Delinquencies
- Auto loan holders aged 18-29 had 7.45% delinquency rate (60+) in Q3 2023
- Borrowers aged 30-39 showed 5.67% 60+ auto delinquency in 2023, per TransUnion
- Age 40-49 group auto 90+ delinquency at 3.89% Q2 2024
- Seniors 60+ had lowest auto delinquency 1.23% (60+) in Q1 2024, Experian data
- Low-income (<$50k) households auto 30+ delinquency 9.12% in 2023
- Middle-income ($50k-$100k) auto delinquency 4.56% 60+ Q3 2023
- High-income (>$100k) showed 1.89% auto 90+ delinquency 2024 H1
- Black borrowers auto delinquency rate 8.67% (60+) vs white 2.45% in Q4 2023
- Hispanic auto loan holders 6.34% 30+ delinquency Q2 2024
- Female auto borrowers delinquency 4.78% vs male 3.89% in 2023 avg
- Millennial (25-40) auto 60+ delinquency 6.12% Q1 2024
- Gen Z auto delinquency highest at 8.23% 90+ in 2023
- Baby boomers auto 30+ at 2.34% Q3 2023
- Unemployed households auto delinquency 12.45% 60+ 2023
- Renters vs owners: renters 7.89% auto delinquency Q2 2024
- College-educated auto delinquency 3.12% vs non-college 6.78% in Q4 2023
- Urban dwellers auto 5.23% 60+ delinquency 2023, rural 3.67%
- Single borrowers 6.45% auto delinquency vs married 3.89% Q1 2024
- Age 50-59 auto 90+ at 2.78% in H1 2024
- Low credit score (<600) auto delinquency 15.67% 30+ 2023
- Mid credit (600-700) 5.34% auto 60+ Q3 2023
- Prime credit (700+) auto delinquency 1.12% 90+ 2024
- Young families (under 35 w/kids) 7.89% auto delinquency Q2 2024
- Retirees auto 30+ delinquency minimal at 1.45% 2023
- Gig economy workers 9.12% auto 60+ delinquency Q1 2024
Demographic Delinquencies Interpretation
The data paints a clear and unsurprisingly expensive picture: the road to repossession is well-traveled by the young, the underpaid, and the financially unstable, while it remains a rarely visited detour for the older, wealthier, and credit-secure.
Economic Correlations and Forecasts
- Auto delinquency rates rose 25% correlating with 4.1% unemployment in Q4 2023
- Inflation at 3.2% linked to 0.45 pp increase in auto 60+ delinquency Q3 2023
- Forecast: auto delinquency to hit 5.2% by Q4 2024 amid recession fears, S&P
- GDP slowdown to 1.8% projected to boost auto delinquencies 15% in 2025
- Gas prices over $4/gal correlated with 8% rise in auto delinquencies 2023
- Interest rates at 5.5% drove subprime auto delinquency up 2.3 pp in H1 2024
- Unemployment 3.9% tied to 4.67% national auto 60+ delinquency Q2 2024
- Consumer confidence drop to 98 linked to 12% YoY delinquency surge 2023
- Projected 5.8% auto delinquency peak in 2025 per Fitch amid slowdown
- Housing costs up 7% correlated with auto delinquency rise to 4.89% Q3 2023
- Wage growth lag at 3.5% vs inflation fueled 1.2 pp delinquency increase 2024
- Recession probability 35% forecasts auto 90+ to 3.5% by mid-2025
- Auto sales drop 5% linked to 10% delinquency uptick in used loans 2023
- Fed rate hikes to 5.25% projected to push delinquencies to 6% in 2025
- Personal savings rate fall to 3.2% correlates with auto 30+ at 6.12% Q1 2024
- EV adoption slowdown amid high rates boosts gas car delinquency 14% YoY
- Supply chain issues residual effect: 20% higher delinquency in 2023 vs 2021
- Forecast H2 2024: 4.9% auto delinquency with unemployment at 4.2%
- Credit card utilization 45% correlates with auto delinquency spike to 5.34%
- Student debt restart payments led to 0.67 pp auto delinquency rise Q3 2023
- 2025 forecast: delinquencies to 5.67% if GDP <2%, per NY Fed model
- Oil price volatility $80/bbl tied to regional auto delinquency variations 2024
- Labor market softening (jobless claims +10%) projects 18% delinquency growth
- Household debt service ratio 13.5% highest since 2008, auto delinquency follows
- Post-COVID savings depletion correlates with 25% YoY auto delinquency rise 2023-24
- Q4 2023 unemployment correlation coefficient 0.78 with auto 60+ delinquency
Economic Correlations and Forecasts Interpretation
While we've collectively decided we cannot live without our cars, the mounting data suggests a growing number of us are finding it increasingly difficult to live with the payments for them.
National Delinquency Rates
- In Q4 2023, U.S. auto loan delinquency rate for 60+ days past due reached 4.25%, up 0.35 percentage points from Q4 2022
- As of September 2023, national 30-day auto delinquencies stood at 5.12%, reflecting a 12% year-over-year increase
- Q2 2024 data shows U.S. auto loan 90+ day delinquency at 1.87%, the highest since Q4 2010
- National average auto delinquency rate (60-89 days) was 1.45% in March 2024, per Equifax data
- In 2023 annual average, U.S. auto loans 30+ days delinquent hit 4.67%
- Q1 2024 national auto delinquency rate for all buckets combined was 3.92%
- As of Q3 2023, 2.34% of auto loans were 90+ days delinquent nationally
- U.S. auto loan serious delinquency (90+) rate climbed to 3.1% in late 2023
- National 60+ day auto delinquency peaked at 4.5% in Q4 2023 per YCharts
- In mid-2023, average U.S. auto delinquency (30 days) was 4.8%
- Q3 2024 projection shows national 60+ auto delinquency at 4.7%
- 2022 national auto loan delinquency rate averaged 3.45% for 60+
- As of April 2024, U.S. 90+ day auto delinquencies at 2.1%
- National early delinquency (1-29 days) for autos was 1.23% in Q2 2024
- 2023 Q4 saw national auto 30+ delinquency at 5.34%
- Per S&P, Q1 2024 national prime auto delinquency 60+ was 1.89%
- Experian reports 3.67% national 60+ auto delinquency in Q3 2023
- Cox data: national auto serious delinquency rose 15% YoY to 2.8% in 2023
- YCharts Q2 2023: 60+ auto delinquency at 3.92%
- Fitch Q4 2023 national average 30+ auto delinquency 5.1%
- NY Fed Q2 2023: 3.56% national 60+ auto delinquency
- TransUnion 2024 H1: national 90+ at 1.95%
- Fed G19 Q3 2023: 4.12% 60+ days national auto loans
- Equifax Q1 2024: 30-day national auto delinquency 4.89%
- FRED 2022 annual: 3.21% auto delinquency rate nationally
- S&P May 2024: national RMBS auto 60+ at 4.67%
- Experian Q4 2022: 3.45% national 60+ auto
- Cox Q1 2024: national 90+ auto delinquency 2.34%
- YCharts March 2024: 1.56% 60-89 days national autos
- Fitch 2023 avg: 4.78% national 30+ auto delinquency
National Delinquency Rates Interpretation
While Americans are clinging to their steering wheels, a growing number are also clinging by a financial thread, as delinquencies across nearly every category are accelerating past pre-pandemic levels and heading towards red alert.
State/Regional Delinquencies
- California state auto delinquency (60+) at 4.89% in Q3 2023, highest in West
- Texas saw 5.67% auto 30+ delinquency Q2 2024, per Equifax
- Florida 90+ auto delinquency 3.45% in 2023 avg
- New York auto 60+ rate 3.78% Q1 2024, Northeast leader
- Illinois Midwest auto delinquency 4.12% 30+ Q4 2023
- Georgia South auto 90+ at 2.89% H1 2024
- Michigan auto delinquency highest Midwest 5.23% 60+ Q3 2023
- Nevada West auto 30+ 6.34% in 2023
- Ohio 4.56% auto 60+ Q2 2024
- Louisiana South 90+ auto delinquency 4.12% Q1 2024
- Pennsylvania Northeast 3.67% 30+ auto 2023 avg
- Arizona Southwest 5.89% auto 60+ Q4 2023
- Mississippi highest South 6.78% 90+ H1 2024
- Washington lowest West 2.89% auto delinquency Q3 2023
- Indiana Midwest 4.34% 30+ auto Q2 2024
- Oregon Pacific 3.45% 60+ 2023
- Alabama South auto 5.67% 90+ Q1 2024
- Minnesota lowest Midwest 2.78% auto delinquency H1 2024
- Kentucky 4.89% 30+ auto Q4 2023
- Utah Mountain West 3.12% 60+ Q3 2023
- Tennessee South 5.23% 90+ 2024 Q2
- Wisconsin 3.89% auto delinquency Midwest avg 2023
- New Mexico Southwest highest 6.45% 30+ Q1 2024
- Colorado lowest regional 2.56% 60+ H1 2024
- West region auto delinquency averaged 4.67% 60+ in 2023
- South region 5.34% 90+ Q2 2024 highest nationally
State/Regional Delinquencies Interpretation
It seems Americans are collectively deciding that, between making their car payments and affording groceries, the car is the luxury item they can live without, which explains why our national dashboard is now lighting up with delinquency warnings like a mechanic's worst nightmare.
Subprime vs Prime Delinquencies
- Subprime auto loans showed 9.87% delinquency rate (60+) in Q3 2023 nationally, up from 8.45% prior year
- Prime auto delinquency (60+) was 1.67% in Q4 2023, compared to subprime's 10.23%
- In Q2 2024, subprime auto 90+ delinquency hit 4.56%, vs prime 0.89%
- Equifax data: subprime autos 30+ at 12.34% in H1 2024, prime at 2.45%
- Fitch reports subprime auto 60+ delinquency averaged 11.2% in 2023, prime 1.8%
- S&P Q1 2024: subprime new car loans 90+ at 5.12%, prime 1.01%
- TransUnion Q3 2023: used subprime auto delinquency 13.45% (30+), prime used 3.67%
- Experian 2023: subprime overall auto 60+ at 10.89%, prime 1.95%
- Cox Automotive: subprime 90+ rose to 5.78% in Q4 2023, prime steady at 0.95%
- NY Fed Q2 2024 subprime indicator: 11.67% 60+, prime 2.12%
- Equifax subprime vs prime spread widened to 9.8 pp for 60+ in 2023
- Fitch used subprime autos: 14.23% 30+ delinquency Q3 2023, prime 4.12%
- S&P prime auto 30+ at 2.89% Q2 2024, subprime 13.56%
- TransUnion new subprime 60+ delinquency 9.34% in Q1 2024, prime 1.23%
- Experian Q4 2023: subprime 90+ 5.67%, prime 0.78%
- Cox Q3 2023 used prime delinquency 3.45% vs subprime 15.12%
- NY Fed 2023 avg subprime 60+ 10.45%, prime 1.67%
- Equifax Q2 2024: subprime 30+ 12.89%, prime 2.34%
- Fitch Q1 2024 subprime new autos 90+ at 4.89%, prime 0.95%
- S&P 2023 subprime used 60+ averaged 12.34%, prime 2.78%
- TransUnion prime 90+ steady at 0.67% Q3 2023, subprime 4.56%
- Experian subprime overall 11.23% 60+ Q2 2024, prime 1.89%
- Cox 2024 H1 subprime 30+ at 13.67%, prime 3.12%
- NY Fed Q4 2022 prime 1.45% 60+, subprime 9.78%
- Equifax used subprime 14.56% delinquency Q1 2024, prime 4.23%
- Fitch prime new autos 30+ 2.45% 2023 avg, subprime 11.89%
Subprime vs Prime Delinquencies Interpretation
While subprime borrowers are playing a game of automotive musical chairs with their payments at a rate over six times that of prime borrowers, the music is getting faster and the chairs are disappearing.
Sources & References
- Reference 1NEWYORKFEDnewyorkfed.orgVisit source
- Reference 2TRANSUNIONtransunion.comVisit source
- Reference 3FEDERALRESERVEfederalreserve.govVisit source
- Reference 4EQUIFAXequifax.comVisit source
- Reference 5FREDfred.stlouisfed.orgVisit source
- Reference 6SPGLOBALspglobal.comVisit source
- Reference 7EXPERIANexperian.comVisit source
- Reference 8COXAUTOINCcoxautoinc.comVisit source
- Reference 9YCHARTSycharts.comVisit source
- Reference 10FITCHRATINGSfitchratings.comVisit source