Once a beacon of hope for generations, the American Dream is now viewed by a majority of Americans as an increasingly distant reality, a stark truth illuminated by data showing that only 42% believe it is still possible for most people.
Key Takeaways
- According to a 2023 Pew Research Center analysis, only 42% of Americans believe the American Dream is still possible for most people, down from 57% in 2012
- Gallup poll in 2022 found that 55% of Americans say achieving the American Dream is harder now than 10 years ago
- A 2021 Harvard Youth Poll indicated 52% of young Americans under 30 doubt they will achieve the American Dream
- Brookings Institution 2019 report: Absolute upward mobility has fallen from 90% for those born in 1940 to 50% for those born in 1980
- Chetty et al. 2017 Opportunity Insights: Children born in 1940 had 92% chance of outearning parents, vs 50% for 1980 births
- Federal Reserve 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances: Median wealth for bottom 50% grew only 28% from 2013-2019 vs 60% for top 10%
- Census Bureau 2023: Homeownership rate at 65.9% in Q4 2023, down from 69% pre-2008 peak
- NAR 2024: Median existing-home price $382,400 in 2023, up 43% since 2019
- Urban Institute 2022: Black homeownership rate 44% vs 74% for whites in 2021
- NCES 2023: 62% of 25-34 year olds have some college, but only 40% bachelor's degree
- College Board 2023: Average published in-state tuition $11,260 for 2023-24, up 180% since 1980
- Georgetown CEW 2022: College wage premium 86% for bachelor's over HS in 2021
- Urban Institute 2021: Hispanic homeownership 49% vs 74% non-Hispanic white, gap of 25 points
- Fed SCF 2022: Median Black wealth $44,900 vs $285,000 white, ratio 1:6.4
- Economic Policy Institute 2023: Black unemployment 5.5% vs 3.1% white in 2023
The American Dream is fading as many now believe it is out of reach.
Economic Mobility
- Brookings Institution 2019 report: Absolute upward mobility has fallen from 90% for those born in 1940 to 50% for those born in 1980
- Chetty et al. 2017 Opportunity Insights: Children born in 1940 had 92% chance of outearning parents, vs 50% for 1980 births
- Federal Reserve 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances: Median wealth for bottom 50% grew only 28% from 2013-2019 vs 60% for top 10%
- Urban Institute 2021: Black-White wealth gap at $188,200 median for whites vs $24,100 for Blacks in 2019
- Census Bureau 2023: Real median household income rose 4% to $74,580 in 2022, but inequality persists with Gini 0.486
- Pew Research 2020: 61% of Americans say too much income inequality prevents Dream achievement
- Economic Policy Institute 2022: Wage growth for bottom 90% was 27% from 1979-2021 vs 160% for top 1%
- St. Louis Fed 2023: Intergenerational income elasticity is 0.5, meaning half of income position persists across generations
- World Bank 2021: US intergenerational mobility rank 27th out of 82 countries
- Raj Chetty 2023 update: Top 1% capture 20% of national income, up from 10% in 1980
- Census 2022: 11.6% poverty rate, with 37.9 million poor, hindering mobility
- Heritage Foundation 2021: Economic mobility rates stable, 70% move up quintiles over lifetime
- NBER 2020: College premium rose to 84% wage gap between HS and college grads
- US Treasury 2023: Wealth inequality Gini at 0.85 in 2022, highest among developed nations
- Georgetown University 2022: Bottom 20% income share fell from 5.3% in 1979 to 3.1% in 2020
- BLS 2023: Labor share of income dropped from 64% in 2000 to 58% in 2022
- Pew 2024: 52% of Americans living paycheck to paycheck, stalling mobility
- Fed NY 2023: Student debt averages $37,000, reducing mobility for 45 million borrowers
- Census 2021: 8.8% of households food insecure, impacting family mobility
- Opportunity Insights 2022: Neighborhoods explain 23% of variance in upward mobility
Economic Mobility Interpretation
The American Dream, once a widely-held ticket to prosperity, has been quietly downsized to a luxury lottery where the odds are increasingly stacked and the grand prize is concentrated in fewer hands.
Education
- NCES 2023: 62% of 25-34 year olds have some college, but only 40% bachelor's degree
- College Board 2023: Average published in-state tuition $11,260 for 2023-24, up 180% since 1980
- Georgetown CEW 2022: College wage premium 86% for bachelor's over HS in 2021
- Pell Institute 2023: Bachelor's degree attainment gap 25% between low and high SES
- NCES 2022: Student loan debt averages $37,853 per borrower in 2022
- Lumina Foundation 2023: 56% adults have postsecondary credential, short of 60% goal
- BLS 2023: Unemployment 2.2% for college grads vs 4.1% HS only in 2023
- Education Trust 2022: Black students 13% of enrollment but 7% of credentials
- ACT 2023: Average composite score 19.5, down from 21.3 in 2007
- NAEP 2023: 8th grade math proficiency 26%, reading 31% in 2022
- Census 2022: 37.7% adults 25+ have bachelor's, up from 30.4% in 2011
- Brookings 2023: Community college completion 33% within 6 years
- Hechinger Report 2024: For-profit college default rates 20% vs 7% public
- IPEDS 2023: Federal aid covers 70% of Pell recipients' costs
- Gallup-Purdue 2022: 9% of grads strongly agree college was worth cost
- US Dept Ed 2023: K-12 chronic absenteeism 25% in 2022-23
- Annie E Casey 2023: 4th grade reading proficiency 32% nationally
- NCES 2024: HS graduation rate 87% in 2021-22
- Migration Policy Institute 2022: Children of immigrants 28% less likely to attend college than natives
- Census Bureau 2022: Black-White educational attainment gap narrowed to 8% for bachelor's
- Pew Research 2023: 47% of US adults say college not worth cost if debt
Education Interpretation
The American Dream has become a high-stakes gamble where we obsess over climbing an education ladder that is simultaneously more essential, more expensive, and more rickety than ever, leaving a trail of debt, disparities, and disillusionment in its wake.
Homeownership
- Census Bureau 2023: Homeownership rate at 65.9% in Q4 2023, down from 69% pre-2008 peak
- NAR 2024: Median existing-home price $382,400 in 2023, up 43% since 2019
- Urban Institute 2022: Black homeownership rate 44% vs 74% for whites in 2021
- Fed 2023 SCF: Home equity makes up 48% of median white family wealth vs 27% for Black families
- HUD 2022: 580,000 homeless on a single night in 2022
- Zillow 2024: Rent burden over 30% of income for 50% of renters in 2023
- Census 2023: Renter households up to 44.1% in 2022 from 36% in 1965
- Freddie Mac 2023: First-time buyers share fell to 24% of purchases in 2022
- Redfin 2024: Inventory shortage of 3.5 million homes in 2023
- MBA 2023: Mortgage denial rate 14% for whites vs 23% for Blacks in 2022
- CoreLogic 2023: Underwater mortgages at 1.5% but equity gap persists for minorities
- NAHB 2024: Cost to build single-family home $428,870 in 2023
- Pew 2022: 81% of Americans see homeownership as central to American Dream
- Census ACS 2022: Suburban homeownership 71% vs 46% urban
- Ellie Mae 2023: Average FICO for approved mortgages 745 in 2023, excluding lower-credit buyers
- Harvard JCHS 2023: Renters median income $42,500 vs $87,900 homeowners in 2021
- ATTOM Data 2023: Seriously underwater homes 2.2% nationwide in Q4 2023
- Census 2023: Multigenerational households up to 18% in 2022, delaying ownership
Homeownership Interpretation
The American Dream has become a high-stakes game of musical chairs, with soaring prices and stark racial divides ensuring that for millions, the music stops well before they ever find a seat.
Public Opinion
- According to a 2023 Pew Research Center analysis, only 42% of Americans believe the American Dream is still possible for most people, down from 57% in 2012
- Gallup poll in 2022 found that 55% of Americans say achieving the American Dream is harder now than 10 years ago
- A 2021 Harvard Youth Poll indicated 52% of young Americans under 30 doubt they will achieve the American Dream
- Monmouth University Poll 2023 showed 61% of respondents feel the American Dream is dead for their generation
- YouGov survey 2024 revealed 48% of Americans think hard work no longer guarantees success
- PRRI 2022 study found 67% of white Americans still believe in the American Dream compared to 45% of Black Americans
- Axios-Harris Poll 2023 indicated 39% of Americans say the American Dream remains alive and well
- NORC at University of Chicago 2021 data showed 46% of lower-income Americans feel excluded from the American Dream
- Economist/YouGov 2023 poll: 53% believe the American Dream is attainable only for the wealthy
- Kaiser Family Foundation 2022 survey: 58% of Democrats vs 32% of Republicans say the American Dream is outdated
Public Opinion Interpretation
The American Dream seems to be undergoing a renovation, with a growing number of people feeling like they're locked out of the showroom while wondering if the blueprint has been redrawn for a wealthier clientele.
Racial Disparities
- Urban Institute 2021: Hispanic homeownership 49% vs 74% non-Hispanic white, gap of 25 points
- Fed SCF 2022: Median Black wealth $44,900 vs $285,000 white, ratio 1:6.4
- Economic Policy Institute 2023: Black unemployment 5.5% vs 3.1% white in 2023
- Brookings 2022: Black children in bottom quintile have 2.5% chance to top 1% vs 10.6% whites
- Census 2023: Poverty rate 17.1% Black vs 8.6% non-Hispanic white in 2022
- Pew 2021: Asian median income $98,174 vs $76,057 white, but intra-Asian gaps exist
- Sentencing Project 2023: Black incarceration 5x white rate, impacting families
- CDC 2022: Life expectancy 70.8 Black vs 77.6 white in 2021
- NAEP 2023: Black 4th graders math score 231 vs 247 white, 16 point gap
- BLS 2023: Wage gap Black women $0.64 per white male dollar
- HUD 2023: Black families receive 40% less inheritance than whites
- Princeton Eviction Lab 2022: Black renters evicted at 1.5x white rate
- KFF 2023: Uninsured rate 10.8% Black vs 7.4% white
- USDA 2022: Food insecurity 19.8% Black households vs 7% white
- Opportunity Insights 2023: Black boys upward mobility 25% lower than white boys from same area
- ACLU 2023: Black drivers stopped 20% more likely to be searched
- Census 2022: Hispanic poverty 16.9% vs 10.5% overall
- Fed 2023: Hispanic wealth median $62,000 vs $188,000 white
- Education Trust 2023: Hispanic HS graduation 82% vs 89% white
- KFF 2024: Maternal mortality Black women 49.5 per 100k vs 19 white
- BLS 2024: Asian unemployment 3.3% lowest, but underemployment higher for some groups
- Pew 2023: Native American poverty 23% vs national 11.6%
- Census 2023: Median Black household income $52,860 vs $77,999 white in 2022
Racial Disparities Interpretation
The American Dream’s scorecard reveals a systemic, color-coded ledger where your starting line is largely determined by race, stubbornly measuring merit not in effort but in the compounded interest of historical advantage.
Sources & References
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