Key Takeaways
- In 2023, controlled flight into terrain (CFIT) accounted for 12% of all fatal commercial jet accidents worldwide, often due to pilot disorientation in poor visibility
- Loss of control in flight (LOC-I) was the leading cause of fatal accidents in 2022, responsible for 21% of incidents per ICAO data, frequently linked to icing or turbulence
- Runway excursions occurred in 15% of non-fatal accidents in 2021, primarily from wet runways and aquaplaning, as per EASA annual safety review
- In 2023, global commercial aviation recorded 37 million flights with only 1 fatal accident, yielding 0.11 fatalities per million flights, Aviation Safety Network
- From 2014-2023, average annual fatalities in commercial jet operations were 332, down 72% from 1994-2003 average of 1,138, Boeing stats
- US commercial aviation had 0 fatalities in 2024 through October, FAA preliminary data
- Commercial jet accident rate fell to 0.81 per million departures in 2022 from 1.15 in 2012, IATA
- Since 2008, no fatal accidents on Boeing 787 worldwide through 2024, over 1,500 in service, ASN
- Airbus A350 has zero fatalities in 20 years of service as of 2024, 600+ aircraft, ASN
- Number of commercial flights grew from 18M in 2000 to 40M in 2019, accidents fell 50%, World Bank
- Jet accident rate halved every decade since 1970s, from 5/million in 1970s to 0.8 in 2020s, Boeing
- Post-9/11 security measures reduced hijackings to near zero 2002-2023, only 1 attempt, ICAO
Air travel remains remarkably safe despite varied and persistent accident causes.
Causes
- In 2023, controlled flight into terrain (CFIT) accounted for 12% of all fatal commercial jet accidents worldwide, often due to pilot disorientation in poor visibility
- Loss of control in flight (LOC-I) was the leading cause of fatal accidents in 2022, responsible for 21% of incidents per ICAO data, frequently linked to icing or turbulence
- Runway excursions occurred in 15% of non-fatal accidents in 2021, primarily from wet runways and aquaplaning, as per EASA annual safety review
- System/component failure or malfunction (SCF) caused 18% of hull-loss accidents from 2013-2022, often involving engines or hydraulics, Boeing analysis
- Bird strikes led to 14% of incidents involving powerplant failures in US operations 2018-2022, FAA wildlife strike database
- Inflight icing contributed to 8% of loss-of-control events in general aviation crashes 2010-2020, NTSB reports
- Fuel exhaustion was a factor in 11% of single-engine GA accidents in 2022, AOPA safety data
- Mid-air collisions accounted for 7% of fatal GA crashes in Europe 2015-2023, EASA GA safety study
- Windshear encounters caused 5% of takeoff/landing accidents globally 2000-2022, IATA analysis
- Spatial disorientation led to 22% of fatal VFR-into-IMC accidents in US 2019-2023, NTSB aviation accident database
- Mechanical issues in landing gear caused 9% of runway excursions 2018-2022, Cirium aviation safety
- Pilot fatigue was implicated in 13% of LOC-I events in cargo operations 2015-2023, FAA fatigue risk management
- Volcanic ash ingestion damaged engines in 4 notable commercial incidents 1980-2023, ICAO volcanic ash manual
- Cargo shift caused 6% of GA crashes during cruise 2020-2023, NTSB GA safety alert
- Thunderstorm encounters led to 10% of convective weather-related accidents 2017-2022, NASA ASRS database
- Propeller failures contributed to 7% of multi-engine turboprop accidents 2010-2022, NTSB
- Cabin pressurization failures were rare but caused 2% of high-altitude emergencies 2005-2023, FAA advisory circular
- Wake turbulence incidents made up 3% of separation-related accidents at major airports 2019-2023, Eurocontrol data
- Fuel contamination led to 5% of dual-engine flameouts in jets 2015-2022, IATA fuel safety
- Human factors in maintenance errors caused 16% of SCF accidents 2018-2023, UK AAIB reports
Causes Interpretation
Fatalities
- In 2023, global commercial aviation recorded 37 million flights with only 1 fatal accident, yielding 0.11 fatalities per million flights, Aviation Safety Network
- From 2014-2023, average annual fatalities in commercial jet operations were 332, down 72% from 1994-2003 average of 1,138, Boeing stats
- US commercial aviation had 0 fatalities in 2024 through October, FAA preliminary data
- General aviation in US saw 1,225 fatalities in 2022, 80% of all aviation deaths, NTSB
- Airliner crashes caused 158 fatalities worldwide in 2022 across 5 accidents, ASN database
- From 2000-2019, 94,000 people died in aviation accidents globally, with 52% in Africa/Middle East, MIT study
- Single fatal US jet accident in 2018 (Southwest 1380) killed 1, lowest since 2009, NTSB
- 2023 saw 72 fatalities in 2 regional jet crashes in Nepal, highest single-country toll, ASN
- Cargo flights had 39 fatalities in 2022, all from 1 Atlas Air 767 crash, NTSB
- Helicopters accounted for 24% of US aviation fatalities in 2021 (350 deaths), FAA
- From 2010-2020, 85% of GA fatalities in US were in fixed-wing aircraft, averaging 1,057 per year, NTSB
- Commercial turboprop fatalities averaged 101 per year 2014-2023, Boeing
- Business jets saw 112 fatalities in 12 accidents worldwide 2022, Cirium
- 2014 Malaysia Airlines MH370 disappearance caused 239 fatalities, largest unsolved case
- Aeroflot Flight 1492 collision in 2023 killed 39 of 85 aboard, Moscow runway incursion
- Yeti Airlines 691 crash in Nepal Jan 2023 killed all 72 due to pilot error
- China Eastern 5735 Boeing 737 crash Mar 2022 killed 132, intentional dive suspected
- Sriwijaya Air 182 crash Jan 2021 off Jakarta killed all 62, thrust asymmetry
- Pakistan International 8303 crash May 2020 in Karachi killed 97 of 99, gear-up landing
- Air India Express 1344 overrun Aug 2020 in Kozhikode killed 21 of 190
- Ukraine International 752 shot down Jan 2020 over Tehran killed all 176
- Ethiopian Airlines 302 Boeing 737 MAX Mar 2019 crashed killing 157, MCAS issue
- Lion Air 610 Boeing 737 MAX Oct 2018 crashed killing 189, MCAS fault
- Southwest 1380 engine failure Apr 2018 killed 1 passenger
- Flydubai 981 crash Mar 2016 in Rostov killed all 62, pilot bounce recovery error
- Metrojet 9268 bomb explosion Oct 2015 over Sinai killed all 224
- Germanwings 9525 deliberate crash Mar 2015 in Alps killed 150
- AirAsia 8501 crash Dec 2014 in Java Sea killed all 162, rudder issue
Fatalities Interpretation
Safety
- Commercial jet accident rate fell to 0.81 per million departures in 2022 from 1.15 in 2012, IATA
- Since 2008, no fatal accidents on Boeing 787 worldwide through 2024, over 1,500 in service, ASN
- Airbus A350 has zero fatalities in 20 years of service as of 2024, 600+ aircraft, ASN
- US Part 121 operators had zero fatal accidents in scheduled service 2008-2008 streak broken only recently, FAA
- Global jet hull loss rate 2023: 0.09 per million flights, best on record, Cirium
- TCAS implementation reduced mid-air collision risk by 70% since 1990s, Eurocontrol
- EGPWS/TAWS prevented over 1,200 CFIT accidents 1974-2023, saving 33,000 lives, US FAA
- No fatal US airline crashes 14 years 2009-2023 until recent, NTSB data
- Qantas holds record longest no fatal jet accidents: 21,822 days as of 2024
- Ryanair zero fatal accidents in 30+ years, over 1 billion passengers
- EasyJet no passenger fatalities in 25 years service, 1,000M+ passengers
- All Nippon Airways zero fatal accidents since 1952 inception
- Embraer 190/195 series zero hull losses in commercial ops through 2024, ASN
- Global fatal accident rate for jets: 0.09/million sectors 2019-2023 average, ICAO
- US GA fatal accident rate declined 1.5% annually 2012-2022 to 0.89 per 100k hours, NTSB
- Lightning strikes cause no fatal crashes since 1967 due to protections, NOAA/FAA
- From 1945-2023, fatal accident rate dropped 99.999% adjusted for flight volume, MIT
Safety Interpretation
Trends
- Number of commercial flights grew from 18M in 2000 to 40M in 2019, accidents fell 50%, World Bank
- Jet accident rate halved every decade since 1970s, from 5/million in 1970s to 0.8 in 2020s, Boeing
- Post-9/11 security measures reduced hijackings to near zero 2002-2023, only 1 attempt, ICAO
- GA fatalities in US peaked 1970s at 3,000+/year, now ~1,200, 60% decline, NTSB
- Commercial fatalities global: 1,000+/year 1990s to <300/year 2020s, 75% drop, ASN
- Regional disparity: Africa 10x higher fatal rate than Europe 2014-2023, 6.45 vs 0.62/million, IATA
- COVID-19 reduced flights 60% 2020, accidents dropped 70%, rebound safer, Cirium
- Turboprop accident rate fell 40% 2010-2020 due to training, Boeing
- Drone integration: zero fatal conflicts with manned aircraft 2010-2023 FAA tracking
- Electric aircraft: no fatal crashes in certified ops as of 2024, EASA
- Asia-Pacific jet safety improved 50% 2013-2023, from 1.2 to 0.6/million, IATA
- Winter ops accidents down 65% since de-icing standards 1990s, FAA
- Cargo accident rate 3x passenger but fatalities lower due to fewer souls, 2023 NTSB
- Military transport crashes: 150 fatalities/year global average 2010-2020, Aviation Safety
- Balloon accidents rare: 5 fatal US 2010-2023, NTSB
- Glider mid-airs: 12% of fatal GA in Europe 2015-2023, EASA
- Ultralight fatalities: 200/year US pre-regulation, now 50 post-2004, FAA
- Seaplane accidents 2x land-based due to water ops, 15% fatal 2018-2023 Canada TSB
- Night flying fatal rate 3x day in GA, consistent 2010-2023, NTSB
- From 2018-2023, runway incursion events up 20% but accidents down 30% due to ASDE-X, FAA
Trends Interpretation
Sources & References
- Reference 1ASNasn.flightsafety.orgVisit source
- Reference 2ICAOicao.intVisit source
- Reference 3EASAeasa.europa.euVisit source
- Reference 4BOEINGboeing.comVisit source
- Reference 5WILDLIFEwildlife.faa.govVisit source
- Reference 6NTSBntsb.govVisit source
- Reference 7AOPAaopa.orgVisit source
- Reference 8IATAiata.orgVisit source
- Reference 9CIRIUMcirium.comVisit source
- Reference 10FAAfaa.govVisit source
- Reference 11ASRSasrs.arc.nasa.govVisit source
- Reference 12EUROCONTROLeurocontrol.intVisit source
- Reference 13GOVgov.ukVisit source
- Reference 14AVIATION-SAFETYaviation-safety.netVisit source
- Reference 15NEWSnews.mit.eduVisit source
- Reference 16ENen.wikipedia.orgVisit source
- Reference 17CORPORATEcorporate.ryanair.comVisit source
- Reference 18EASYJETeasyjet.comVisit source
- Reference 19ANAana.co.jpVisit source
- Reference 20WEATHERweather.govVisit source
- Reference 21ARDENTardent.mit.eduVisit source
- Reference 22DATAdata.worldbank.orgVisit source
- Reference 23TSBtsb.gc.caVisit source






