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Statistics About The Most Likely March Madness Upsets

March Madness upsets with a 12-seed beating a 5-seed have historically been the most likely, occurring around 35% of the time.

Highlights: Most Likely March Madness Upsets

  • 50% of all No. 9 seeds have defeated No. 8 seeds since the field expanded to 64.
  • The No.5 seeds in the 2019 NCAA tournament won 60% of the time (3 out of 5 games).
  • According to past results, a 6 vs. 11 seed upset is expected to occur about 37% of the time.
  • 12 seeds have a historical win percentage of 35.71% against 5 seeds.
  • Since 1985, at least one No. 4 seed has failed to reach the Sweet 16 every year but two.
  • 2018 was the first year when a 16 seed finally upset a No.1 seed.
  • 14-seeds win their first games around 15.26% of the time against 3-seeds.
  • 57% of the Final Four teams since 2000 have been No. 1 seeds.
  • The average seed of a NCAA champion is 2.0.
  • Over the past decade, the second round upset rate is 41.9%.

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With March Madness just around the corner, basketball fans and bracket enthusiasts are eagerly anticipating the upsets that are bound to happen in the tournament. As history has shown us, the underdogs often rise to the occasion and knock off higher-seeded teams, creating exciting and unexpected moments for viewers. In this blog post, we will delve into some of the most likely upsets to watch out for in this year’s March Madness tournament.

The Latest Most Likely March Madness Upsets Explained

50% of all No. 9 seeds have defeated No. 8 seeds since the field expanded to 64.

The statistic that 50% of all No. 9 seeds have defeated No. 8 seeds since the field expanded to 64 indicates that there have been instances where the lower-seeded team (No. 9 seed) has been successful in defeating the higher-seeded team (No. 8 seed) in NCAA basketball tournaments. This implies that the matchup between the 8th and 9th seeds is relatively evenly matched and has resulted in upsets or unexpected outcomes. The statistic suggests that being a No. 9 seed does not preclude a team from being competitive and potentially defeating a higher-seeded opponent.

The No.5 seeds in the 2019 NCAA tournament won 60% of the time (3 out of 5 games).

The statistic stating that the No. 5 seeds in the 2019 NCAA basketball tournament won 60% of their games (3 out of 5 games) reflects the performance of teams assigned this seed during that particular tournament. Winning 60% of games suggests that these teams performed relatively well compared to other seeds, but their overall success would require further context about their opponents and their gameplay performance. This information can provide insights into how this seed fared in the tournament and highlight the competitive balance and unpredictability often seen in March Madness.

According to past results, a 6 vs. 11 seed upset is expected to occur about 37% of the time.

The statistic indicates that historically, in the NCAA March Madness basketball tournament, there is an approximately 37% chance of a 6th seed team losing to an 11th seed team. This kind of upset is common in the tournament due to the unpredictability and excitement surrounding matchups between teams with different seeding. The statistic serves as a useful reference point for fans and analysts looking to assess the likelihood of such an event occurring in any given tournament year, and can help inform predictions and expectations for the competition.

12 seeds have a historical win percentage of 35.71% against 5 seeds.

The statistic “12 seeds have a historical win percentage of 35.71% against 5 seeds” suggests that in past matchups between 12 seeds and 5 seeds in a particular type of competition, the 12 seeds have won approximately 35.71% of the time. This indicates that there is a trend where the lower-seeded 12 teams have been able to achieve a moderate level of success against the higher-seeded 5 teams, despite being considered the underdogs based on seedings. The statistic provides valuable insight into the competitive dynamics and unpredictability within the competition, highlighting how seedings may not always accurately reflect the outcomes of the matchups.

Since 1985, at least one No. 4 seed has failed to reach the Sweet 16 every year but two.

The statistic implies that out of all the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournaments since 1985, with the exception of only two tournaments, at least one team seeded as the No. 4 seed has failed to advance to the Sweet 16 round. Being a No. 4 seed is generally considered a favorable position in the tournament, as these teams are typically expected to have a strong chance of making it to the Sweet 16. However, this statistic highlights the unpredictability and upsets that can occur in the tournament, showing that being a No. 4 seed does not guarantee success in reaching the Sweet 16. This information underscores the competitive nature of March Madness and the excitement of underdog teams pulling off unexpected victories.

2018 was the first year when a 16 seed finally upset a No.1 seed.

The statistic “2018 was the first year when a 16 seed finally upset a No.1 seed” refers to a significant milestone in the history of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. Prior to 2018, no 16 seed had ever defeated a No.1 seed in the tournament, making it a seemingly impossible feat due to the significant disparity in talent and rankings between the two seeds. However, in 2018, the University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC) made history by defeating the top-ranked University of Virginia in a stunning upset, becoming the first 16 seed to achieve this victory. This statistic highlights the unpredictability and excitement of sports, as well as the potential for underdogs to defy expectations and make a lasting impact on the tournament.

14-seeds win their first games around 15.26% of the time against 3-seeds.

The statistic that 14-seeds win their first games around 15.26% of the time against 3-seeds indicates the historical success rate of these lower-seeded teams in the NCAA basketball tournament. When a 14-seed faces a 3-seed in the tournament, the 14-seed wins approximately 15.26% of the time, suggesting that there is a small but existing chance for upsets in such matchups. This statistic highlights that while 3-seeds are generally considered strong favorites against 14-seeds, the underdog can still pull off a victory occasionally, adding an element of unpredictability and excitement to the tournament.

57% of the Final Four teams since 2000 have been No. 1 seeds.

The statistic indicates that 57% of the teams that reached the Final Four in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament since the year 2000 were No. 1 seeds. This suggests a tendency for teams with higher seeds, which are typically granted to the strongest teams based on regular season performance, to advance to the later stages of the tournament. The significance of this finding is that being a No. 1 seed appears to confer a greater likelihood of making it to the Final Four compared to lower seeded teams. This statistic can be used to inform predictions and strategies for future tournaments by highlighting the importance of seeding in determining tournament success.

The average seed of a NCAA champion is 2.0.

The statistic “The average seed of a NCAA champion is 2.0” refers to the average ranking or seeding position of the teams that have won the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament in the past. In this context, lower seed numbers indicate stronger teams, with the top seed being the most favored to win. An average seed of 2.0 suggests that historically, NCAA champions tend to come from the top seeds in the tournament, typically being one of the top two ranked teams. This statistic gives insight into the competitive nature of the tournament and the importance of seeding in determining a team’s likelihood of success in the postseason.

Over the past decade, the second round upset rate is 41.9%.

The statistic ‘Over the past decade, the second round upset rate is 41.9%’ indicates that in the second round of a competition or tournament across various events over a period of ten years, approximately 41.9% of the time, a lower-ranked or less favored team or individual defeated a higher-ranked or more favored opponent. This implies that upsets are relatively common in the second round compared to expected outcomes based on rankings or past performances. The statistic suggests that the second round can be particularly unpredictable and exciting, with underdogs having a notable success rate during this stage of competition.

References

0. – https://www.www.sportingnews.com

1. – https://www.www.dataconomy.com

2. – https://www.theundefeated.com

3. – https://www.www.ncaa.com

4. – https://www.www.bettingpros.com

5. – https://www.www.cbssports.com

How we write our statistic reports:

We have not conducted any studies ourselves. Our article provides a summary of all the statistics and studies available at the time of writing. We are solely presenting a summary, not expressing our own opinion. We have collected all statistics within our internal database. In some cases, we use Artificial Intelligence for formulating the statistics. The articles are updated regularly.

See our Editorial Process.

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