GITNUXREPORT 2026

Teacher Retention Statistics

National teacher retention has declined post-pandemic, worsened by low pay and burnout.

Min-ji Park

Min-ji Park

Research Analyst focused on sustainability and consumer trends.

First published: Feb 13, 2026

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Key Statistics

Statistic 1

In 2022, female teachers nationally had 88% retention vs 82% for males.

Statistic 2

Black teachers experienced 18% attrition rate in 2021, leading to 82% retention, higher than 12% for white teachers.

Statistic 3

Teachers under 30 had 75% retention after 3 years, vs 92% for those over 50 in 2020 data.

Statistic 4

Hispanic teachers in urban areas retained at 84% in 2022, above national average.

Statistic 5

Male special education teachers had 79% retention vs 86% for females in 2021.

Statistic 6

Teachers with children under 5 at home showed 85% retention, lower than childless at 90%.

Statistic 7

Asian American teachers had 91% retention rate nationally in 2019.

Statistic 8

Veteran teachers (20+ years) retained at 95% annually, per 2022 surveys.

Statistic 9

LGBTQ+ teachers reported 15% higher attrition, 78% retention in 2023.

Statistic 10

Teachers with disabilities had 76% retention vs 88% without in national data.

Statistic 11

Rural white teachers retained 89%, Black rural at 80% in 2021.

Statistic 12

Early-career teachers aged 25-29 had 70% 5-year retention.

Statistic 13

Female teachers over 40 retained at 93%, highest demographic group.

Statistic 14

Native American teachers had 79% retention in public schools 2022.

Statistic 15

Married teachers showed 90% retention vs 83% single in 2020.

Statistic 16

Teachers with advanced degrees retained 92%, bachelor's only 84%.

Statistic 17

Urban Black male teachers had 72% retention in 2021.

Statistic 18

Mid-career women (35-44) at 87% retention nationally.

Statistic 19

Pacific Islander teachers retained 85% in 2022 data.

Statistic 20

Teachers with 5-9 years experience: 85% retention rate.

Statistic 21

Low-income background teachers had 81% retention vs 89% others.

Statistic 22

ELL teachers who are bilingual retained 88%, monolingual 82%.

Statistic 23

Retired military veteran teachers: 94% retention first 5 years.

Statistic 24

Single parent teachers: 78% retention amid childcare issues.

Statistic 25

Teachers aged 30-39: 86% annual retention 2023.

Statistic 26

Multiracial teachers retained 83% nationally.

Statistic 27

Burnout as primary factor cited by 52% of departing teachers in 2022 surveys.

Statistic 28

Low salary influenced 68% of teacher attrition decisions nationally.

Statistic 29

Workload exceeding 50 hours/week linked to 40% higher attrition.

Statistic 30

Lack of administrative support caused 45% of mid-year resignations.

Statistic 31

Student behavior issues drove 30% of special ed teacher turnover.

Statistic 32

Poor professional development quality increased leaving by 25%.

Statistic 33

High-stakes testing pressure linked to 22% attrition in tested subjects.

Statistic 34

Inadequate classroom resources cited by 35% of leavers.

Statistic 35

Family obligations factored in 28% of retirements before age 65.

Statistic 36

Pandemic health fears caused 20% spike in 2021 attrition.

Statistic 37

Lack of autonomy in teaching methods influenced 32% departures.

Statistic 38

High student-teacher ratios over 25:1 raised turnover 18%.

Statistic 39

Bullying by colleagues or parents in 15% of attrition cases.

Statistic 40

Insufficient tech access hindered retention by 12% in rural areas.

Statistic 41

Mental health decline from stress in 55% of surveyed leavers.

Statistic 42

Low student engagement perceived in 27% turnover reasons.

Statistic 43

Housing affordability issues drove 24% urban teacher exits.

Statistic 44

Political pressures on curriculum caused 10% recent attrition.

Statistic 45

Lack of career advancement opportunities in 40% cases.

Statistic 46

Violence or safety concerns in 19% of high-poverty school leavings.

Statistic 47

Compensation lag behind inflation at 20% over 10 years.

Statistic 48

Excessive paperwork/admin tasks cited by 38%.

Statistic 49

Poor work-life balance in 62% of departing teachers.

Statistic 50

Discrimination experiences raised attrition 16% for minorities.

Statistic 51

Inadequate prep time linked to 14% higher leaving rates.

Statistic 52

Parental interference in 21% of elementary teacher exits.

Statistic 53

44% of teachers leaving cited lack of respect as key factor.

Statistic 54

Salary increases of 10% boosted retention by 15% in pilot programs.

Statistic 55

Mentoring programs for new teachers improved 3-year retention by 25%.

Statistic 56

States with induction policies saw 20% higher retention for novices.

Statistic 57

Universal pre-K funding correlated with 12% retention gain in early ed.

Statistic 58

Loan forgiveness programs retained 30% more teachers in high-need areas.

Statistic 59

Reduced class sizes by 3 students increased retention 8%.

Statistic 60

Wellness programs lowered attrition by 10% in participating districts.

Statistic 61

Performance pay incentives boosted retention 14% for low performers.

Statistic 62

Housing stipends in high-cost areas improved retention by 22%.

Statistic 63

Collaborative planning time added 1 hour/week raised retention 9%.

Statistic 64

Alternative certification pathways increased retention 18% for career changers.

Statistic 65

Mental health support via EAPs reduced leaving by 16%.

Statistic 66

Pension enhancements retained 25% more near-retirees.

Statistic 67

Tech integration training improved retention 11% in rural schools.

Statistic 68

Family leave policies of 12 weeks boosted retention 13% for parents.

Statistic 69

Career ladder programs with promotions increased retention 20%.

Statistic 70

Classroom aides provision raised teacher retention by 10%.

Statistic 71

Anti-bullying policies for staff correlated with 7% retention gain.

Statistic 72

Professional development stipends of $2000/year improved retention 12%.

Statistic 73

Safe school investments reduced violence-related attrition 15%.

Statistic 74

Sign-on bonuses of $5000 retained 28% more new hires first year.

Statistic 75

Flexible scheduling options increased retention 14% for caregivers.

Statistic 76

Equity training programs lowered minority teacher attrition 11%.

Statistic 77

Climate surveys and action plans boosted retention 9%.

Statistic 78

Salary parity with other professions raised retention 19% in trials.

Statistic 79

Peer observation feedback loops improved retention 10%.

Statistic 80

In the 2021-2022 school year, approximately 86% of public school teachers in the United States were retained from the previous year, with variations by experience level showing 92% retention for those with 10+ years.

Statistic 81

The national teacher retention rate for K-12 public schools dropped to 84% in 2020 due to pandemic-related stressors, compared to 89% pre-COVID.

Statistic 82

Between 2017-2018 and 2019-2020, the average annual retention rate for U.S. public school teachers was 91.2%, with higher rates in suburban districts at 93%.

Statistic 83

In 2022, 15% of U.S. teachers left their schools mid-year or at year-end, contributing to a national retention rate of 85%.

Statistic 84

The 5-year retention rate for new teachers nationally stands at 72%, meaning 28% leave within five years of starting.

Statistic 85

U.S. public school teacher retention was 87% in 2018-2019, but fell to 82% in high-poverty schools during the same period.

Statistic 86

Nationally, 44% of teachers who entered the profession in 2016 were still teaching in the same state by 2021, indicating a 56% attrition over five years.

Statistic 87

In 2023 surveys, 55% of U.S. teachers reported intent to leave within two years, potentially dropping national retention below 80%.

Statistic 88

The national average retention rate for special education teachers is 81% annually, lower than the 88% for general education.

Statistic 89

From 2011 to 2021, U.S. teacher retention stabilized at around 90% annually, but new teacher retention was only 83% after three years.

Statistic 90

In 2022-2023, national retention for urban public school teachers was 83%, compared to 90% in rural areas.

Statistic 91

17% of U.S. public school teachers left the profession entirely in 2021-2022, leading to an 83% retention rate.

Statistic 92

National data shows 92% retention for teachers aged 50+ versus 78% for those under 30 in 2020-2021.

Statistic 93

The U.S. Department of Education reported a 7% national mid-year teacher departure rate in 2022, impacting retention.

Statistic 94

In 2019, 89% of public school teachers were retained nationally, with 11% moving schools or leaving.

Statistic 95

National retention for math and science teachers averaged 85% in 2021, below the overall 87%.

Statistic 96

2023 national surveys indicate 33% of teachers considering leaving, projecting retention drop to 80%.

Statistic 97

U.S. charter school teacher retention was 79% in 2022, compared to 87% in traditional publics.

Statistic 98

From 2008-2018, national 5-year retention for teachers was 69%, with annual rates around 88%.

Statistic 99

In 2020, pandemic effects reduced national retention to 80% for early-career teachers.

Statistic 100

National data from 2022 shows 94% retention for principals but only 86% for teachers.

Statistic 101

76% of 2010-2011 new hires were retained after 10 years nationally.

Statistic 102

National retention rate for public school teachers with master's degrees is 91%, vs 85% for bachelor's only.

Statistic 103

In 2021, 19% of U.S. teachers cited burnout as reason for leaving, affecting overall retention.

Statistic 104

National 3-year retention for Teach For America corps members is 62% in public schools.

Statistic 105

88% of U.S. teachers were retained in their districts in 2017-2018.

Statistic 106

National attrition rose to 18% in 2022-2023 due to salary dissatisfaction.

Statistic 107

Retention for National Board Certified Teachers nationally is 95% annually.

Statistic 108

In 2023, 82% national retention amid 50% reporting poor working conditions.

Statistic 109

National 7-year retention for new teachers is 64% as of 2022 data.

Statistic 110

In California for 2021-2022, teacher retention in Los Angeles Unified School District was 82%, down from 88% pre-pandemic.

Statistic 111

Texas reported 78% retention for rural teachers in 2022, compared to 85% urban.

Statistic 112

New York City's public schools had 75% teacher retention in 2020-2021 due to high living costs.

Statistic 113

Florida's statewide retention rate was 87% in 2022-2023, highest in Southeast.

Statistic 114

In Illinois, Chicago Public Schools saw 79% retention for Black teachers in 2021.

Statistic 115

Georgia rural districts reported 81% retention in 2022, with 19% attrition to urban areas.

Statistic 116

Michigan's Detroit schools had 73% retention rate in 2021-2022, lowest in Midwest.

Statistic 117

Pennsylvania statewide retention was 89% in 2020, but dropped to 84% in 2022.

Statistic 118

Arizona's Phoenix area schools retained 80% of teachers in 2023 amid housing crisis.

Statistic 119

Washington's Seattle district had 85% retention for 2022, above state average of 82%.

Statistic 120

Nevada's Clark County retained 77% of teachers in 2021 due to salary competition.

Statistic 121

Ohio urban districts like Cleveland saw 76% retention in 2022.

Statistic 122

Colorado's Denver Public Schools reported 83% retention in 2023.

Statistic 123

Massachusetts Boston schools had 88% retention, highest in Northeast for 2022.

Statistic 124

Indiana's rural areas retained 84% of teachers in 2021-2022.

Statistic 125

Virginia statewide retention was 90% in 2020, dropping to 86% post-COVID.

Statistic 126

Oregon Portland district had 81% retention amid wildfires and pandemic.

Statistic 127

Tennessee Nashville schools retained 82% in 2022.

Statistic 128

Alabama's Birmingham city schools had 78% retention in 2023.

Statistic 129

Kentucky rural retention was 80% in 2021.

Statistic 130

Oklahoma Tulsa retained 79% of teachers in 2022.

Statistic 131

Missouri St. Louis schools had 74% retention rate in 2021-2022.

Statistic 132

Wisconsin Milwaukee district reported 83% retention in 2023.

Statistic 133

Iowa Des Moines had 87% retention, above state average.

Statistic 134

Kansas Wichita schools retained 81% in 2022.

Statistic 135

Arkansas Little Rock had 79% retention amid shortages.

Statistic 136

New Mexico Albuquerque retained 77% in 2023.

Statistic 137

Utah Salt Lake City schools had 85% retention in 2022.

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While a seemingly solid national retention rate of 86% masks a deeper crisis, the alarming reality is that more than half of new teachers leave the profession within five years, a staggering trend fueled by burnout, inadequate support, and compensation that fails to match their immense value.

Key Takeaways

  • In the 2021-2022 school year, approximately 86% of public school teachers in the United States were retained from the previous year, with variations by experience level showing 92% retention for those with 10+ years.
  • The national teacher retention rate for K-12 public schools dropped to 84% in 2020 due to pandemic-related stressors, compared to 89% pre-COVID.
  • Between 2017-2018 and 2019-2020, the average annual retention rate for U.S. public school teachers was 91.2%, with higher rates in suburban districts at 93%.
  • In California for 2021-2022, teacher retention in Los Angeles Unified School District was 82%, down from 88% pre-pandemic.
  • Texas reported 78% retention for rural teachers in 2022, compared to 85% urban.
  • New York City's public schools had 75% teacher retention in 2020-2021 due to high living costs.
  • In 2022, female teachers nationally had 88% retention vs 82% for males.
  • Black teachers experienced 18% attrition rate in 2021, leading to 82% retention, higher than 12% for white teachers.
  • Teachers under 30 had 75% retention after 3 years, vs 92% for those over 50 in 2020 data.
  • Salary increases of 10% boosted retention by 15% in pilot programs.
  • Mentoring programs for new teachers improved 3-year retention by 25%.
  • States with induction policies saw 20% higher retention for novices.
  • Burnout as primary factor cited by 52% of departing teachers in 2022 surveys.
  • Low salary influenced 68% of teacher attrition decisions nationally.
  • Workload exceeding 50 hours/week linked to 40% higher attrition.

National teacher retention has declined post-pandemic, worsened by low pay and burnout.

Demographic Statistics

  • In 2022, female teachers nationally had 88% retention vs 82% for males.
  • Black teachers experienced 18% attrition rate in 2021, leading to 82% retention, higher than 12% for white teachers.
  • Teachers under 30 had 75% retention after 3 years, vs 92% for those over 50 in 2020 data.
  • Hispanic teachers in urban areas retained at 84% in 2022, above national average.
  • Male special education teachers had 79% retention vs 86% for females in 2021.
  • Teachers with children under 5 at home showed 85% retention, lower than childless at 90%.
  • Asian American teachers had 91% retention rate nationally in 2019.
  • Veteran teachers (20+ years) retained at 95% annually, per 2022 surveys.
  • LGBTQ+ teachers reported 15% higher attrition, 78% retention in 2023.
  • Teachers with disabilities had 76% retention vs 88% without in national data.
  • Rural white teachers retained 89%, Black rural at 80% in 2021.
  • Early-career teachers aged 25-29 had 70% 5-year retention.
  • Female teachers over 40 retained at 93%, highest demographic group.
  • Native American teachers had 79% retention in public schools 2022.
  • Married teachers showed 90% retention vs 83% single in 2020.
  • Teachers with advanced degrees retained 92%, bachelor's only 84%.
  • Urban Black male teachers had 72% retention in 2021.
  • Mid-career women (35-44) at 87% retention nationally.
  • Pacific Islander teachers retained 85% in 2022 data.
  • Teachers with 5-9 years experience: 85% retention rate.
  • Low-income background teachers had 81% retention vs 89% others.
  • ELL teachers who are bilingual retained 88%, monolingual 82%.
  • Retired military veteran teachers: 94% retention first 5 years.
  • Single parent teachers: 78% retention amid childcare issues.
  • Teachers aged 30-39: 86% annual retention 2023.
  • Multiracial teachers retained 83% nationally.

Demographic Statistics Interpretation

The data reveals teaching's uneven landscape, where retention often hinges on a fragile alchemy of identity, life stage, and support, suggesting the profession holds some far more securely than others.

Factor-Based Statistics

  • Burnout as primary factor cited by 52% of departing teachers in 2022 surveys.
  • Low salary influenced 68% of teacher attrition decisions nationally.
  • Workload exceeding 50 hours/week linked to 40% higher attrition.
  • Lack of administrative support caused 45% of mid-year resignations.
  • Student behavior issues drove 30% of special ed teacher turnover.
  • Poor professional development quality increased leaving by 25%.
  • High-stakes testing pressure linked to 22% attrition in tested subjects.
  • Inadequate classroom resources cited by 35% of leavers.
  • Family obligations factored in 28% of retirements before age 65.
  • Pandemic health fears caused 20% spike in 2021 attrition.
  • Lack of autonomy in teaching methods influenced 32% departures.
  • High student-teacher ratios over 25:1 raised turnover 18%.
  • Bullying by colleagues or parents in 15% of attrition cases.
  • Insufficient tech access hindered retention by 12% in rural areas.
  • Mental health decline from stress in 55% of surveyed leavers.
  • Low student engagement perceived in 27% turnover reasons.
  • Housing affordability issues drove 24% urban teacher exits.
  • Political pressures on curriculum caused 10% recent attrition.
  • Lack of career advancement opportunities in 40% cases.
  • Violence or safety concerns in 19% of high-poverty school leavings.
  • Compensation lag behind inflation at 20% over 10 years.
  • Excessive paperwork/admin tasks cited by 38%.
  • Poor work-life balance in 62% of departing teachers.
  • Discrimination experiences raised attrition 16% for minorities.
  • Inadequate prep time linked to 14% higher leaving rates.
  • Parental interference in 21% of elementary teacher exits.
  • 44% of teachers leaving cited lack of respect as key factor.

Factor-Based Statistics Interpretation

The education system seems to have mistaken "you can't pour from an empty cup" for a suggestion, systematically draining teachers through a predictable and insulting cocktail of unsustainable hours, disrespectful pay, and a profound lack of support, all while demanding they perform miracles.

Intervention and Policy Statistics

  • Salary increases of 10% boosted retention by 15% in pilot programs.
  • Mentoring programs for new teachers improved 3-year retention by 25%.
  • States with induction policies saw 20% higher retention for novices.
  • Universal pre-K funding correlated with 12% retention gain in early ed.
  • Loan forgiveness programs retained 30% more teachers in high-need areas.
  • Reduced class sizes by 3 students increased retention 8%.
  • Wellness programs lowered attrition by 10% in participating districts.
  • Performance pay incentives boosted retention 14% for low performers.
  • Housing stipends in high-cost areas improved retention by 22%.
  • Collaborative planning time added 1 hour/week raised retention 9%.
  • Alternative certification pathways increased retention 18% for career changers.
  • Mental health support via EAPs reduced leaving by 16%.
  • Pension enhancements retained 25% more near-retirees.
  • Tech integration training improved retention 11% in rural schools.
  • Family leave policies of 12 weeks boosted retention 13% for parents.
  • Career ladder programs with promotions increased retention 20%.
  • Classroom aides provision raised teacher retention by 10%.
  • Anti-bullying policies for staff correlated with 7% retention gain.
  • Professional development stipends of $2000/year improved retention 12%.
  • Safe school investments reduced violence-related attrition 15%.
  • Sign-on bonuses of $5000 retained 28% more new hires first year.
  • Flexible scheduling options increased retention 14% for caregivers.
  • Equity training programs lowered minority teacher attrition 11%.
  • Climate surveys and action plans boosted retention 9%.
  • Salary parity with other professions raised retention 19% in trials.
  • Peer observation feedback loops improved retention 10%.

Intervention and Policy Statistics Interpretation

Every statistic here screams that teachers, like all humans, respond powerfully to being treated with basic professional dignity and material support, proving that if you don’t want them to quit, you simply need to pay them, help them, house them, listen to them, and stop burning them out.

National Statistics

  • In the 2021-2022 school year, approximately 86% of public school teachers in the United States were retained from the previous year, with variations by experience level showing 92% retention for those with 10+ years.
  • The national teacher retention rate for K-12 public schools dropped to 84% in 2020 due to pandemic-related stressors, compared to 89% pre-COVID.
  • Between 2017-2018 and 2019-2020, the average annual retention rate for U.S. public school teachers was 91.2%, with higher rates in suburban districts at 93%.
  • In 2022, 15% of U.S. teachers left their schools mid-year or at year-end, contributing to a national retention rate of 85%.
  • The 5-year retention rate for new teachers nationally stands at 72%, meaning 28% leave within five years of starting.
  • U.S. public school teacher retention was 87% in 2018-2019, but fell to 82% in high-poverty schools during the same period.
  • Nationally, 44% of teachers who entered the profession in 2016 were still teaching in the same state by 2021, indicating a 56% attrition over five years.
  • In 2023 surveys, 55% of U.S. teachers reported intent to leave within two years, potentially dropping national retention below 80%.
  • The national average retention rate for special education teachers is 81% annually, lower than the 88% for general education.
  • From 2011 to 2021, U.S. teacher retention stabilized at around 90% annually, but new teacher retention was only 83% after three years.
  • In 2022-2023, national retention for urban public school teachers was 83%, compared to 90% in rural areas.
  • 17% of U.S. public school teachers left the profession entirely in 2021-2022, leading to an 83% retention rate.
  • National data shows 92% retention for teachers aged 50+ versus 78% for those under 30 in 2020-2021.
  • The U.S. Department of Education reported a 7% national mid-year teacher departure rate in 2022, impacting retention.
  • In 2019, 89% of public school teachers were retained nationally, with 11% moving schools or leaving.
  • National retention for math and science teachers averaged 85% in 2021, below the overall 87%.
  • 2023 national surveys indicate 33% of teachers considering leaving, projecting retention drop to 80%.
  • U.S. charter school teacher retention was 79% in 2022, compared to 87% in traditional publics.
  • From 2008-2018, national 5-year retention for teachers was 69%, with annual rates around 88%.
  • In 2020, pandemic effects reduced national retention to 80% for early-career teachers.
  • National data from 2022 shows 94% retention for principals but only 86% for teachers.
  • 76% of 2010-2011 new hires were retained after 10 years nationally.
  • National retention rate for public school teachers with master's degrees is 91%, vs 85% for bachelor's only.
  • In 2021, 19% of U.S. teachers cited burnout as reason for leaving, affecting overall retention.
  • National 3-year retention for Teach For America corps members is 62% in public schools.
  • 88% of U.S. teachers were retained in their districts in 2017-2018.
  • National attrition rose to 18% in 2022-2023 due to salary dissatisfaction.
  • Retention for National Board Certified Teachers nationally is 95% annually.
  • In 2023, 82% national retention amid 50% reporting poor working conditions.
  • National 7-year retention for new teachers is 64% as of 2022 data.

National Statistics Interpretation

We claim a resilient 84-88% annual retention rate, but this deceptively stable average hides a hemorrhaging system where nearly a third of new teachers vanish within five years, veteran loyalty masks widespread burnout, and the most challenging schools—and our most crucial specialists—are being systematically abandoned.

State/Regional Statistics

  • In California for 2021-2022, teacher retention in Los Angeles Unified School District was 82%, down from 88% pre-pandemic.
  • Texas reported 78% retention for rural teachers in 2022, compared to 85% urban.
  • New York City's public schools had 75% teacher retention in 2020-2021 due to high living costs.
  • Florida's statewide retention rate was 87% in 2022-2023, highest in Southeast.
  • In Illinois, Chicago Public Schools saw 79% retention for Black teachers in 2021.
  • Georgia rural districts reported 81% retention in 2022, with 19% attrition to urban areas.
  • Michigan's Detroit schools had 73% retention rate in 2021-2022, lowest in Midwest.
  • Pennsylvania statewide retention was 89% in 2020, but dropped to 84% in 2022.
  • Arizona's Phoenix area schools retained 80% of teachers in 2023 amid housing crisis.
  • Washington's Seattle district had 85% retention for 2022, above state average of 82%.
  • Nevada's Clark County retained 77% of teachers in 2021 due to salary competition.
  • Ohio urban districts like Cleveland saw 76% retention in 2022.
  • Colorado's Denver Public Schools reported 83% retention in 2023.
  • Massachusetts Boston schools had 88% retention, highest in Northeast for 2022.
  • Indiana's rural areas retained 84% of teachers in 2021-2022.
  • Virginia statewide retention was 90% in 2020, dropping to 86% post-COVID.
  • Oregon Portland district had 81% retention amid wildfires and pandemic.
  • Tennessee Nashville schools retained 82% in 2022.
  • Alabama's Birmingham city schools had 78% retention in 2023.
  • Kentucky rural retention was 80% in 2021.
  • Oklahoma Tulsa retained 79% of teachers in 2022.
  • Missouri St. Louis schools had 74% retention rate in 2021-2022.
  • Wisconsin Milwaukee district reported 83% retention in 2023.
  • Iowa Des Moines had 87% retention, above state average.
  • Kansas Wichita schools retained 81% in 2022.
  • Arkansas Little Rock had 79% retention amid shortages.
  • New Mexico Albuquerque retained 77% in 2023.
  • Utah Salt Lake City schools had 85% retention in 2022.

State/Regional Statistics Interpretation

America's teachers are staying put about as well as a snowman in Phoenix, with the national picture looking less like a united front and more like a scattered puzzle where your pay, your zip code, and your patience determine your odds of making it to year two.

Sources & References