From Manhattan's towering $88.50 per square foot to Detroit's more modest $23.80, commercial rent tells a powerful story of regional economics, sector demand, and market volatility that every investor and tenant must understand.
Key Takeaways
- Average U.S. office asking rent reached $33.20 per sq ft in Q1 2024
- Manhattan Class A office rent averaged $88.50 per sq ft in 2023
- San Francisco office asking rents fell to $55.00 per sq ft in Q4 2023
- U.S. national retail asking rent averaged $23.10 per sq ft in Q1 2024
- NYC retail rents on Fifth Avenue hit $2,500 per sq ft in 2023
- Los Angeles shopping center rents $45.20 per sq ft Q4 2023
- U.S. industrial rent averaged $8.50 per sq ft in Q1 2024
- Inland Empire industrial rents hit $1.45 per sq ft Q4 2023
- Dallas-Fort Worth industrial asking rent $10.20 per sq ft 2023
- Commercial vacancy rates influenced rent growth by 1.2% nationally in 2023
- U.S. commercial rent index rose 4.5% YoY in Q4 2023
- Office sector saw rent declines of 5.8% in gateway markets 2023
- Interest rates to cap rent growth at 2.5% annually through 2025
- GDP growth of 2.1% projected to support 4% commercial rent increase 2024
- Unemployment at 4.2% to stabilize office rents in 2024
Commercial rent varies significantly by city, property type, and economic trends.
Economic Factors
- Interest rates to cap rent growth at 2.5% annually through 2025
- GDP growth of 2.1% projected to support 4% commercial rent increase 2024
- Unemployment at 4.2% to stabilize office rents in 2024
- Inflation cooling to 2.5% enables modest 3.2% rent growth 2024
- Fed rate cuts anticipated boosting investment and rents 5% by 2025
- Recession risk at 35% could depress rents 2-4% in 2024
- Consumer spending up 2.4% to lift retail rents 3.5% 2024
- Corporate profits growth 5.2% supports office lease-ups and rents
- Supply chain resilience drives industrial rents to $9.20 psf avg 2024
- Remote work persistence limits office rent recovery to 1.8% 2024
- Energy prices volatility adds 1.1% to industrial operating costs/rents
- Housing shortage indirectly boosts commercial rents 2.7% 2024
- Tech sector layoffs curb SF/NY office rent growth to 0.5% 2024
- Tourism rebound projects 6.2% retail rent growth in 2024
- Wage inflation at 3.9% pressures tenant affordability for rents
- EV adoption accelerates industrial rents near ports by 7.4% 2024
- Government spending cuts risk 1.5% dip in fed district rents 2024
- Demographic shifts to South project 5.3% Sunbelt rent premium 2024
- AI boom forecasts 10% rent spike in data center markets 2024
Economic Factors Interpretation
The commercial rent forecast feels like a tug-of-war where modest gains from a stable economy are constantly challenged by stubborn risks, creating a market that's cautiously optimistic yet perpetually on edge.
Industrial Rents
- U.S. industrial rent averaged $8.50 per sq ft in Q1 2024
- Inland Empire industrial rents hit $1.45 per sq ft Q4 2023
- Dallas-Fort Worth industrial asking rent $10.20 per sq ft 2023
- Chicago industrial rents $9.80 per sq ft Q1 2024
- Atlanta industrial average $7.90 per sq ft 2023
- Phoenix industrial rents $11.30 per sq ft Q4 2023
- Houston industrial asking rent $9.40 per sq ft 2023
- Los Angeles industrial $13.60 per sq ft Q1 2024
- Seattle industrial rents averaged $12.10 per sq ft 2023
- New Jersey industrial $11.70 per sq ft Q4 2023
- Columbus industrial asking rent $8.20 per sq ft 2023
- Indianapolis industrial rents $7.50 per sq ft Q1 2024
- Kansas City industrial average $7.80 per sq ft 2023
- Nashville industrial rents $9.10 per sq ft Q4 2023
- Charlotte industrial asking rent $8.90 per sq ft 2023
- Raleigh-Durham industrial $9.60 per sq ft Q1 2024
- Salt Lake City industrial rents $10.40 per sq ft 2023
- Orlando industrial average $8.70 per sq ft Q4 2023
- Tampa industrial asking rent $9.20 per sq ft 2023
- Savannah industrial rents $8.30 per sq ft Q1 2024
- Memphis industrial average $7.20 per sq ft 2023
- Cincinnati industrial rents $7.90 per sq ft Q4 2023
- Milwaukee industrial asking rent $8.40 per sq ft 2023
- Detroit industrial rents $7.60 per sq ft Q1 2024
- Cleveland industrial average $7.30 per sq ft 2023
Industrial Rents Interpretation
Industrial rents reveal a stark geographic lottery, where paying a staggering $13.60 per square foot in Los Angeles might make you wistful for Savannah's relative bargain at $8.30.
Market Trends
- Commercial vacancy rates influenced rent growth by 1.2% nationally in 2023
- U.S. commercial rent index rose 4.5% YoY in Q4 2023
- Office sector saw rent declines of 5.8% in gateway markets 2023
- Retail rent growth slowed to 2.1% amid e-commerce shift in 2023
- Industrial rents surged 8.7% nationally due to logistics demand 2023
- Net absorption impacted commercial rents negatively by 10M sq ft in 2023
- Asking rents for prime commercial space up 3.2% in Sunbelt 2023
- Commercial lease renewals saw 15% rent concessions in 2023
- Downtown commercial rents fell 7.4% vs suburbs up 1.9% 2023
- ESG factors boosted green building rents by 6.5% premium 2023
- Remote work reduced office rent demand by 20% since 2019
- Supply pipeline added 500M sq ft pressuring rents in 2023
- Triple-net lease rents averaged $15.40 psf across sectors 2023
- Inflation hedged commercial rents up 5.1% in CPI-adjusted terms 2023
- Tech hub cities saw 12% higher rent growth than average 2023
- Submarket rent dispersion widened to 25% variance nationally 2023
- Flex space rents grew 4.8% blending office-industrial 2023
- Hotel conversion impacted urban rents down 4.2% 2023
- Data center adjacent rents premium 15% over standard industrial 2023
- Life sciences rents in key markets up 11.3% YoY 2023
- Rent abatements averaged 4 months in new leases 2023
- Cross-border investment stabilized rents in coastal markets 2023
- Commercial mortgage rates up 2% correlated to rent hikes 2023
- E-commerce drove 22% of industrial rent growth 2023
- U.S. commercial rents expected to rise 3.8% in 2024
Market Trends Interpretation
While the national rent index wore a modest 4.5% crown in 2023, beneath it a civil war was being waged: logistics fortresses saw rents surge 8.7% as e-commerce generals laid siege, while forsaken urban offices offered desperate truces and 15% concessions, proving that even in real estate, you can't just phone it in anymore.
Office Rents
- Average U.S. office asking rent reached $33.20 per sq ft in Q1 2024
- Manhattan Class A office rent averaged $88.50 per sq ft in 2023
- San Francisco office asking rents fell to $55.00 per sq ft in Q4 2023
- Houston office rents averaged $28.40 per sq ft year-end 2023
- Chicago downtown office rent at $32.10 per sq ft in Q1 2024
- Average NYC office rent declined 2.5% to $65.30 per sq ft in 2023
- Los Angeles office asking rent $42.80 per sq ft Q4 2023
- Dallas office market rent averaged $29.50 per sq ft in 2023
- Boston office rents at $51.20 per sq ft Q1 2024
- Seattle office asking rents dropped to $48.90 per sq ft 2023
- Atlanta office rent averaged $27.60 per sq ft year-end 2023
- Philadelphia office rents $31.40 per sq ft Q1 2024
- Denver office asking rent $34.70 per sq ft 2023
- Miami office rents rose to $45.20 per sq ft Q4 2023
- Austin office rent averaged $36.80 per sq ft 2023
- Portland office rents $37.10 per sq ft Q1 2024
- Nashville office asking rent $32.90 per sq ft 2023
- Charlotte office rents at $30.50 per sq ft Q4 2023
- Phoenix office rent $35.60 per sq ft year-end 2023
- Orlando office asking rents $29.80 per sq ft Q1 2024
- Sacramento office rents averaged $30.20 per sq ft 2023
- Raleigh office rent $33.40 per sq ft Q4 2023
- Salt Lake City office asking rent $28.70 per sq ft 2023
- Indianapolis office rents $24.90 per sq ft Q1 2024
- Kansas City office rent averaged $25.30 per sq ft 2023
- Columbus office asking rents $26.10 per sq ft Q4 2023
- Cincinnati office rents $24.60 per sq ft 2023
- Milwaukee office rent $27.20 per sq ft Q1 2024
- Detroit office asking rent $23.80 per sq ft 2023
- Cleveland office rents averaged $25.40 per sq ft Q4 2023
Office Rents Interpretation
The commercial office market is a clear map of economic bragging rights, where renting a cubicle in Manhattan costs more than a penthouse view in Detroit, proving that in real estate, your zip code isn't just an address, it's a price tag.
Retail Rents
- U.S. national retail asking rent averaged $23.10 per sq ft in Q1 2024
- NYC retail rents on Fifth Avenue hit $2,500 per sq ft in 2023
- Los Angeles shopping center rents $45.20 per sq ft Q4 2023
- Chicago retail strip center rent $27.80 per sq ft 2023
- Miami retail asking rents averaged $52.30 per sq ft Q1 2024
- San Francisco retail rents declined to $48.60 per sq ft 2023
- Dallas retail mall rents $32.10 per sq ft Q4 2023
- Houston retail asking rent $28.90 per sq ft 2023
- Atlanta retail rents $35.40 per sq ft Q1 2024
- Phoenix retail strip rents averaged $29.70 per sq ft 2023
- Seattle retail asking rents $41.20 per sq ft Q4 2023
- Boston retail rents $50.80 per sq ft 2023
- Denver retail mall rent $34.50 per sq ft Q1 2024
- Las Vegas retail asking rents $38.90 per sq ft 2023
- Orlando retail rents averaged $33.60 per sq ft Q4 2023
- Tampa retail strip center $31.20 per sq ft 2023
- Nashville retail asking rent $36.70 per sq ft Q1 2024
- Charlotte retail rents $30.40 per sq ft 2023
- Austin retail mall rents $37.80 per sq ft Q4 2023
- Portland retail asking rents $35.10 per sq ft 2023
- Sacramento retail rents averaged $29.30 per sq ft Q1 2024
- Raleigh retail strip $32.50 per sq ft 2023
- Indianapolis retail asking rent $26.90 per sq ft Q4 2023
- Kansas City retail rents $28.20 per sq ft 2023
- Columbus retail mall $27.40 per sq ft Q1 2024
- Cincinnati retail asking rents $25.70 per sq ft 2023
- Milwaukee retail rents averaged $29.10 per sq ft Q4 2023
- Detroit retail strip $24.80 per sq ft 2023
- Cleveland retail asking rent $26.30 per sq ft Q1 2024
Retail Rents Interpretation
While the national average sits at a seemingly reasonable $23, the wild rent circus across America ranges from cities charging your firstborn for a Fifth Avenue shoebox to those merely asking for a mildly inconvenient arm and a leg.