As a tidal wave of demographic change approaches—with 10,000 Americans turning 65 daily and the population over 80 set to double by 2040—the senior living industry is rapidly transforming from a niche market into a $1.2 trillion global powerhouse.
Key Takeaways
- The U.S. senior living industry generated $97.4 billion in revenue in 2022
- Global senior living market size was valued at $1.2 trillion in 2023 and expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.5% through 2030
- Senior housing occupancy rates averaged 84.5% in Q4 2023 across the U.S.
- The U.S. population aged 80+ will double to 18 million by 2040
- 54 million Americans were 65+ in 2023, comprising 16% of the population
- By 2030, all baby boomers will be 65+, totaling 73 million seniors
- Average annual cost of assisted living is $54,000 in the U.S. in 2023
- Median monthly rent for independent living is $3,500 nationwide in 2023
- Nursing home private room costs average $9,000/month in 2023
- National occupancy for independent living was 87% in Q1 2024
- 1,200 new senior living units delivered in Q4 2023
- Total U.S. senior housing inventory is 1.2 million units in 2024
- 65% of seniors prefer aging in place over senior living communities
- Demand for active adult communities up 15% in 2023
- Wellness and tech integration in 60% of new senior living builds by 2025
A booming senior living industry is growing rapidly to meet the needs of an aging population.
Cost & Pricing
- Average annual cost of assisted living is $54,000 in the U.S. in 2023
- Median monthly rent for independent living is $3,500 nationwide in 2023
- Nursing home private room costs average $9,000/month in 2023
- Home health aide hourly rate averages $31 in 2023
- Assisted living rates rose 5.2% year-over-year in 2023
- Memory care monthly costs average $6,800 in the U.S. in 2023
- 70% of seniors will need long-term care costing $138,000 on average lifetime
- Medicare covers 0% of long-term care costs
- Average skilled nursing facility cost is $108,405/year for semi-private room
- Independent living entrance fees average $150,000 in 2023
- Monthly homemaker services cost $5,500 average in 2023
- CCRC monthly fees average $4,200 including services
- Adult day care averages $2,000/month nationally
- Respite care hourly rate $35 in 2023
- 55% of seniors pay out-of-pocket for care
- Inflation-adjusted care costs up 53% since 2004
- Medicaid covers 50% of nursing home residents
- Private long-term care insurance penetration 7% among seniors
- Hospice care average $10,000 per beneficiary annually
- Regional variance: Alaska assisted living $8,500/mo vs. $4,000 in Oklahoma
- Assisted living costs up 50% in 10 years
- Average refundable deposit IL $80k
- Skilled nursing Medicaid reimbursement 70% of costs
- Companion care $30/hr average
- 60% deplete savings on care within 2 years
- CCRC life care contracts 40% of market
- Private pay 70% in assisted living
- Hearing aid costs $4,000 not covered by Medicare
- Dental care out-of-pocket $1,500/year for seniors
- Transportation services $25/trip average
Cost & Pricing Interpretation
The stark financial reality of senior care is a meticulously planned heist, where the costs are astronomical, the safety nets are full of holes, and your life savings are the target, all while we pretend it's just a matter of "planning for retirement."
Demographic Data
- The U.S. population aged 80+ will double to 18 million by 2040
- 54 million Americans were 65+ in 2023, comprising 16% of the population
- By 2030, all baby boomers will be 65+, totaling 73 million seniors
- 10,000 Americans turn 65 daily through 2030
- Women make up 58% of the U.S. population aged 65+
- 28% of adults 65+ live alone in the U.S. as of 2023
- Life expectancy at 65 is 19 years for men and 21 for women in 2023
- 80% of seniors have at least one chronic condition
- The 85+ population grew 38% from 2010-2020
- By 2060, seniors will be 23% of U.S. population
- 75+ population segment drives 60% demand growth by 2030
- 40% of 65+ have disabilities requiring assistance
- Hispanic seniors to grow 150% by 2050, fastest ethnic group
- Rural seniors 20% more likely to need care services
- 50% of 85+ require daily help with ADLs
- Baby boomer women outnumber men 3:2 at 65+
- Dementia prevalence 13% in 65+, rising to 33% at 85+
- 6 million U.S. seniors in poverty (9%) in 2023
- Grandparents providing care: 25% of 50-80 year olds
- Obesity rates 42% among 65+
- 70% of 65-74 exercise regularly
- 15% of seniors food insecure
- Black seniors 22% poverty rate vs 7% white
- 85+ fastest growing age group at 3.5% annually
- 35% of seniors caregivers themselves
- Mental health issues 20% prevalence in 65+
- Homeownership 80% among 65+
- Voter turnout 75% for 65+, highest age group
- 12% of seniors unemployed but seeking work
Demographic Data Interpretation
As the tsunami of boomers reaches retirement age, we're staring down a demographic revolution where the "golden years" will require an unprecedented and sobering expansion of care, community, and infrastructure just to meet the basic needs of an isolated, chronically ill, and astonishingly diverse older population.
Market Size & Revenue
- The U.S. senior living industry generated $97.4 billion in revenue in 2022
- Global senior living market size was valued at $1.2 trillion in 2023 and expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.5% through 2030
- Senior housing occupancy rates averaged 84.5% in Q4 2023 across the U.S.
- The independent living segment accounted for 45% of total senior living revenue in 2022
- U.S. seniors housing market cap rates averaged 6.8% in 2023
- Assisted living facilities represent 38% of the U.S. senior living bed inventory as of 2023
- The senior care market in North America held 42% global share in 2023
- Total U.S. seniors housing and skilled nursing assets under management reached $150 billion in 2023
- Memory care revenue grew 12% year-over-year in 2023
- U.S. senior living development pipeline included 45,000 units in Q1 2024
- U.S. senior living EBITDA margins averaged 28% in 2023
- Argentum reports senior living revenue per unit up 6% to $5,200/month in 2023
- Private equity owns 25% of U.S. senior housing assets in 2023
- Skilled nursing revenue hit $50B in U.S. 2022
- CCRCs represent 10% of senior living market revenue
- Asia-Pacific senior living market to grow fastest at 9% CAGR to 2030
- U.S. senior living transaction volume $15B in 2023
- Europe senior care market $250B in 2023
- Average senior living operator NOI margin 32% in top quartile 2023
- Senior living debt issuance $8B in 2023
- Top 30 operators control 40% market share
- Revenue growth 4.5% for assisted living in 2023
- Global market CAGR 8.2% 2024-2032
- U.S. CCRC assets $40B
- Nursing care revenue per occupied bed $300/day average
- Investment sales volume up 50% YoY Q4 2023
- Canada senior living market $15B CAD 2023
- Profit margins 25-35% for well-operated ILFs
Market Size & Revenue Interpretation
Behind these staggering trillions in global revenue and relentless construction pipelines lies the profound, profit-laced truth of our aging world: a booming industry is building the architecture of our collective old age, one premium unit and healthy margin at a time.
Supply & Occupancy
- National occupancy for independent living was 87% in Q1 2024
- 1,200 new senior living units delivered in Q4 2023
- Total U.S. senior housing inventory is 1.2 million units in 2024
- Assisted living occupancy stabilized at 82.3% in 2023
- Construction starts for senior housing down 20% YoY in 2023
- 4.5% of senior housing inventory under construction in Q1 2024
- Urban senior living occupancy at 85% vs. 80% suburban in 2023
- Skilled nursing occupancy rose to 79% in 2023
- Oversupply in Sunbelt markets led to 75% occupancy in some areas
- Total assisted living beds: 950,000 nationwide in 2023
- Memory care occupancy 81% in Q1 2024
- 500 senior living communities closed since 2020
- Florida has 15% of national senior housing supply
- New supply absorption rate 90% within 12 months in strong markets
- 2.8% vacancy rate for independent living nationally 2023
- Post-acute rehab occupancy 75% average
- Sunbelt construction pipeline 40% of national total
- 75% of supply concentrated in top 50 MSAs
- Stabilized occupancy threshold 85% for profitability
- CCRC inventory 650 communities with 300k residents
- Independent living occupancy 88.2% Q4 2023
- 10k units absorbed in 2023 net
- California 10% of national beds
- Luxury segment occupancy 92%
- Rehab/short-stay occupancy 65%
- Pipeline down to 3% under construction
- Northeast occupancy highest at 87%
- 1,100 communities in development nationwide
- Closures mostly small operators 50 beds or less
- Oversupplied markets 20+ in Sunbelt
Supply & Occupancy Interpretation
While the seniors are largely staying put in their comfy chairs, developers seem to have finally gotten the memo, as evidenced by a slowing construction pipeline that is cautiously sniffing out a recovery from the wild overbuilding that left some sunny markets feeling more like ghost towns.
Trends & Projections
- 65% of seniors prefer aging in place over senior living communities
- Demand for active adult communities up 15% in 2023
- Wellness and tech integration in 60% of new senior living builds by 2025
- Hybrid care models expected to capture 25% market share by 2030
- ALZ tech adoption in memory care up 40% since 2020
- Senior living M&A deals totaled $10B in 2023
- 90% of seniors want pet-friendly communities
- Projected senior living need: 1.2 million more beds by 2030
- Telehealth usage in senior living rose to 70% post-COVID
- Sustainability features in 50% of new senior living projects by 2025
- Workforce shortages: 90k unfilled senior care jobs in 2023
- AI and robotics projected in 30% of communities by 2030
- Luxury senior living segment growing 10% annually
- 80% of seniors demand social connectivity programs
- Home-based senior living models to double by 2030
- ESG investing in senior housing up 25% in 2023
- Culinary experiences key amenity in 70% marketing
- Projected $200B U.S. market by 2028
- 95% satisfaction rate in tech-enabled communities
- Intergenerational living up 20% in new designs
- Staffing ratios improving with $18/hr wage average
- VR therapy in 25% dementia units
- Workforce projected shortage 150k by 2030
- 85% want continuing care campus models
- Plant-based dining options in 60% kitchens
- REITs own 15% of portfolio in seniors housing
- Demand up 8% for urban infill sites
- Net zero energy communities goal by 2030 for leaders
- Personalized medicine in 40% by 2028
Trends & Projections Interpretation
While seniors overwhelmingly desire to age in place, the senior living industry is feverishly innovating with tech, wellness, and luxury to become such a compelling pet-friendly, socially-connected, and sustainable experience that it might just make you forget you ever lived anywhere else.
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