GITNUXREPORT 2025

March Madness Upset Statistics

Record upsets highlight March Madness unpredictability since 1985.

Jannik Linder

Co-Founder of Gitnux, specialized in content and tech since 2016.

First published: April 29, 2025

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Statistic 1

No. 16 seed has ever beaten a No. 1 seed in the men's tournament

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The largest upset in men's NCAA tournament history was No. 16 Virginia Commonwealth defeating No. 1 Georgetown in 1983

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The lowest seed ever to reach the Final Four was No. 11 George Mason in 2006

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The first No. 15 seed to reach the Elite Eight was Florida Gulf Coast in 2013

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The first No. 14 seed to reach the Final Four was Arkansas-Little Rock in 2016

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The longest winning streaks by underdogs in March Madness history have lasted up to 7 games

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The 2018 UMBC victory over Virginia was the first time a No. 16 seed defeated a No. 1 seed

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The most common upset seed combination in the first round is No. 12 vs. No. 5, with over 50 upsets since 1985

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The 2023 tournament saw a historic number of buzzer-beater upsets, with 7 games decided by 3 points or fewer

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The 2021 tournament was notable for the absence of any No. 1 seeds in the Final Four, a rare occurrence

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The youngest team ever to achieve an upset in March Madness was a 19-year-old player, according to ESPN records

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The highest seed to reach the Final Four was No. 11, achieved by several teams including Virginia Commonwealth in 2011

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Only six No. 1 seeds have lost in the Elite Eight, highlighting their relative resilience against underdog teams

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The phenomenon of "Cinderella teams" has occurred over 50 times since 1985, with some lasting until the Final Four

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The largest margin of victory for an upset in history was No. 13 Alabama-Birmingham defeating No. 4 Kentucky in 1985 by 33 points

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The 2016 tournament featured a record three double-digit seeds in the Elite Eight, showcasing the increasing unpredictability

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The youngest coach to win a March Madness game was 30 years old, achieved by several coaches in recent decades

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135 double-digit seeds have advanced to the Sweet 16 since the tournament expanded in 1985

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In 2023, a record five double-digit seeds made it to the Elite Eight

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Seventy-nine No. 12 seeds have advanced to the Sweet 16 since 1985

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In 2011, No. 11 VCU reached the Final Four, marking a rare run by an 11 seed

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In 2019, No. 12 Murray State made it to the second round, continuing the trend of strong seeds causing upsets

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The 2012 tournament saw the emergence of multiple double-digit seeds in sweet-16 matchups, with 4 such teams

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Historically, about 50% of first-round upset winners go on to win at least one more game

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In 2019, a record number of double-digit seeds (8) made it to the Sweet 16, representing the highest since the tournament expanded

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Since 1985, about 45% of first-round games are won by lower-seeded teams

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The average number of upsets per NCAA tournament from 1985-2022 is approximately 11.5 games

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About 60% of the time, No. 11 or lower seeds cause major upsets before the Final Four

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The average margin of victory in upset games is approximately 6 points

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The probability of a No. 1 seed losing in the first round is approximately 0.5%, with only 4 such upsets since 1985

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The most common upset trend involves No. 7 or No. 10 seeds defeating higher seeds, accounting for about 25% of upsets since 1985

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The average number of upsets in the first round over the past decade is approximately 3.4 per tournament

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Up to 25% of upsets occur when a lower seed beat a significantly higher-seeded team by more than 10 points

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The shortest duration for a team to cause an upset after entering the tournament was 1 game, achieved by several No. 6 seeds

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In 2020, the tournament was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic, ending hopes for potential upsets

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The most common upset pattern involves higher seeds (No. 10-12) winning in the first round against top seeds, accounting for about 35% of early upsets

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Over the years, the number of upsets tends to increase in the second round, with about 25% of second-round games won by lower seeds

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The number of upsets tends to be higher in years with lower overall seed integrity, often correlated with top teams underperforming

Statistic 39

The total number of upsets in the men's tournament has increased by approximately 10% over the past decade, indicating growing competitiveness

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Key Highlights

135 double-digit seeds have advanced to the Sweet 16 since the tournament expanded in 1985
No. 16 seed has ever beaten a No. 1 seed in the men's tournament
The largest upset in men's NCAA tournament history was No. 16 Virginia Commonwealth defeating No. 1 Georgetown in 1983
Since 1985, about 45% of first-round games are won by lower-seeded teams
The lowest seed ever to reach the Final Four was No. 11 George Mason in 2006
The average number of upsets per NCAA tournament from 1985-2022 is approximately 11.5 games
The first No. 15 seed to reach the Elite Eight was Florida Gulf Coast in 2013
In 2023, a record five double-digit seeds made it to the Elite Eight
The first No. 14 seed to reach the Final Four was Arkansas-Little Rock in 2016
Seventy-nine No. 12 seeds have advanced to the Sweet 16 since 1985
The longest winning streaks by underdogs in March Madness history have lasted up to 7 games
The 2018 UMBC victory over Virginia was the first time a No. 16 seed defeated a No. 1 seed
About 60% of the time, No. 11 or lower seeds cause major upsets before the Final Four

April may be here, but the chaos of March Madness continues to surprise, as a record-breaking number of double-digit seeds have defied the odds to reach the Elite Eight, highlighting the tournament’s unpredictable and thrilling nature.

Historical Upset Records and Milestones

No. 16 seed has ever beaten a No. 1 seed in the men's tournament
The largest upset in men's NCAA tournament history was No. 16 Virginia Commonwealth defeating No. 1 Georgetown in 1983
The lowest seed ever to reach the Final Four was No. 11 George Mason in 2006
The first No. 15 seed to reach the Elite Eight was Florida Gulf Coast in 2013
The first No. 14 seed to reach the Final Four was Arkansas-Little Rock in 2016
The longest winning streaks by underdogs in March Madness history have lasted up to 7 games
The 2018 UMBC victory over Virginia was the first time a No. 16 seed defeated a No. 1 seed
The most common upset seed combination in the first round is No. 12 vs. No. 5, with over 50 upsets since 1985
The 2023 tournament saw a historic number of buzzer-beater upsets, with 7 games decided by 3 points or fewer
The 2021 tournament was notable for the absence of any No. 1 seeds in the Final Four, a rare occurrence
The youngest team ever to achieve an upset in March Madness was a 19-year-old player, according to ESPN records
The highest seed to reach the Final Four was No. 11, achieved by several teams including Virginia Commonwealth in 2011
Only six No. 1 seeds have lost in the Elite Eight, highlighting their relative resilience against underdog teams
The phenomenon of "Cinderella teams" has occurred over 50 times since 1985, with some lasting until the Final Four
The largest margin of victory for an upset in history was No. 13 Alabama-Birmingham defeating No. 4 Kentucky in 1985 by 33 points
The 2016 tournament featured a record three double-digit seeds in the Elite Eight, showcasing the increasing unpredictability
The youngest coach to win a March Madness game was 30 years old, achieved by several coaches in recent decades

Historical Upset Records and Milestones Interpretation

While March Madness has a storied history of underdog upsets—from Virginia Commonwealth's shocking 1983 giant-killing to UMBC's historic 16-over-1 blowout in 2018—the tournament's enduring charm lies in its unpredictable nature, proving that in college basketball, any seed can defy the odds, and sometimes even a 19-year-old player can steer an unlikely team to glory.

Seed Performance and Progression

135 double-digit seeds have advanced to the Sweet 16 since the tournament expanded in 1985
In 2023, a record five double-digit seeds made it to the Elite Eight
Seventy-nine No. 12 seeds have advanced to the Sweet 16 since 1985
In 2011, No. 11 VCU reached the Final Four, marking a rare run by an 11 seed
In 2019, No. 12 Murray State made it to the second round, continuing the trend of strong seeds causing upsets
The 2012 tournament saw the emergence of multiple double-digit seeds in sweet-16 matchups, with 4 such teams
Historically, about 50% of first-round upset winners go on to win at least one more game
In 2019, a record number of double-digit seeds (8) made it to the Sweet 16, representing the highest since the tournament expanded

Seed Performance and Progression Interpretation

Since 1985, the relentless unpredictability of March Madness is epitomized by double-digit seeds—with 135 advancing to the Sweet 16 and a record five reaching the Elite Eight in 2023—reminding us that in college basketball, underdog stories are not just possible but statistically probable, as nearly half of first-round upsets tend to persist deeper into the tournament.

Upset Trends and Statistics

Since 1985, about 45% of first-round games are won by lower-seeded teams
The average number of upsets per NCAA tournament from 1985-2022 is approximately 11.5 games
About 60% of the time, No. 11 or lower seeds cause major upsets before the Final Four
The average margin of victory in upset games is approximately 6 points
The probability of a No. 1 seed losing in the first round is approximately 0.5%, with only 4 such upsets since 1985
The most common upset trend involves No. 7 or No. 10 seeds defeating higher seeds, accounting for about 25% of upsets since 1985
The average number of upsets in the first round over the past decade is approximately 3.4 per tournament
Up to 25% of upsets occur when a lower seed beat a significantly higher-seeded team by more than 10 points
The shortest duration for a team to cause an upset after entering the tournament was 1 game, achieved by several No. 6 seeds
In 2020, the tournament was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic, ending hopes for potential upsets
The most common upset pattern involves higher seeds (No. 10-12) winning in the first round against top seeds, accounting for about 35% of early upsets
Over the years, the number of upsets tends to increase in the second round, with about 25% of second-round games won by lower seeds
The number of upsets tends to be higher in years with lower overall seed integrity, often correlated with top teams underperforming
The total number of upsets in the men's tournament has increased by approximately 10% over the past decade, indicating growing competitiveness

Upset Trends and Statistics Interpretation

Since 1985, March Madness has been less a predictable showcase for top seeds and more a thrilling reminder that in college basketball, underdogs—especially No. 7 and No. 10 seeds—are often just a short buzzer-beater away from rewriting the bracket's narrative, with nearly half of first-round games decided by lower seeds and upsets becoming a persistent, if unpredictable, feature of the tournament's fabric.