Key Takeaways
- NFL home teams won 57.3% of regular season games from 1970 to 2020
- In the NFL, home teams have a 3.6 point average scoring advantage per game since 2000
- NFL playoff home teams win 62.1% of games from 1980-2022
- College football home teams win 64.2% of FBS games (2000-2022)
- In college football, home teams score 7.1 more points per game
- College football playoff home teams win 70% (2014-2023)
- NBA home teams win 59.8% of regular season games (1980-2023)
- NBA playoffs home win %: 64.2% since 1970
- NBA home teams score +4.7 points per 100 possessions
- MLB home teams win 53.6% of games (1901-2023)
- MLB playoffs home win %: 55.2% since 1903
- MLB home teams batting average +0.008 higher
- Premier League soccer home win 45.2% (1992-2023)
- World Cup soccer home nation win +10% advantage
- La Liga home win %: 47.1%
Home field advantage significantly improves a team's chance of winning across multiple sports.
College Football
- College football home teams win 64.2% of FBS games (2000-2022)
- In college football, home teams score 7.1 more points per game
- College football playoff home teams win 70% (2014-2023)
- FBS home win % night games: 66.3%
- College football home teams +15.4 yards rushing advantage
- SEC college football home win %: 68.1%
- College football dome stadiums home win 62.7%
- Big Ten home teams win 65.8% rivalry games
- College football home upsets: 22% of losses
- FCS college home win %: 61.4%
- College football high altitude home advantage +8 pts
- Post-2020 college home win %: 62.9%
- College football bowl games neutral home-like: 55%
- Group of 5 home win %: 63.2%
- College football 4th quarter home +4.2 pts
- Pac-12 home win % before realignment: 67.1%
- College football cold weather home win 69%
- Neutral site college championship home-like 50%
- College football home penalty yards -11 per game
- ACC home teams 66.4% win rate
- College football overtime home win 58.3%
- 2023 college football home win %: 64.8%
- College football primetime home +9 pts margin
- Big 12 home win %: 65.2%
- College football turf vs grass home adv: 65% vs 63%
College Football Interpretation
MLB
- MLB home teams win 53.6% of games (1901-2023)
- MLB playoffs home win %: 55.2% since 1903
- MLB home teams batting average +0.008 higher
- MLB home runs hit at home +0.1 per game more
- AL MLB home win 54.1%, NL 53.2%
- MLB day games home win 52.8%, night 54%
- Coors Field home win 58% due to altitude
- MLB post-1997 interleague home win 54.5%
- MLB dome stadiums home win 53.9%
- MLB World Series home win 52.4%
- 2023 MLB home win %: 52.7%
- MLB home strikeouts pitched -0.3 more per game
- Small ballparks MLB home adv +2%
- MLB humid climates home batting +0.012 AVG
- MLB road teams error rate +0.1 per game
- AL East home teams 54.3% win
- MLB extra innings home win 55.1%
- NL West home win 53.8%
- MLB turf vs grass home: 53.5% vs 53.7%
- Yankees home win historical 55.2%
- MLB 1st inning home scoring +0.05 runs
- Post-COVID MLB home win 52.9%
MLB Interpretation
NBA
- NBA home teams win 59.8% of regular season games (1980-2023)
- NBA playoffs home win %: 64.2% since 1970
- NBA home teams score +4.7 points per 100 possessions
- In NBA, home free throw attempts +1.8 per game
- NBA Finals home win %: 68.1%
- NBA dome arenas home win 61.3%
- NBA back-to-back away win % drops to 42%
- NBA home 3PT% +1.2% higher
- Eastern Conference NBA home win 60.4%
- NBA road teams foul out 2x more often
- Post-COVID NBA home win %: 57.9%
- NBA Christmas Day home win 62%
- NBA home rebounding +3.1 per game
- Western Conference NBA home adv +5.2 pts
- NBA overtime home win 65.7%
- 2023 NBA home win %: 59.1%
- NBA altitude teams (Denver) home win 70%
- NBA home turnovers -1.4 per game
- NBA primetime (TNT) home win 61%
- NBA rookie heavy road teams win 45%
- NBA 4th quarter home scoring +2.8 pts
- NBA spread cover home 52.3%
- Small market NBA home win 58.7%
- NBA grass court? Wait no, all indoor: home FTA diff +2.1 recent
NBA Interpretation
NFL
- NFL home teams won 57.3% of regular season games from 1970 to 2020
- In the NFL, home teams have a 3.6 point average scoring advantage per game since 2000
- NFL playoff home teams win 62.1% of games from 1980-2022
- Home teams in NFL score 1.2 more points per game on average than away teams (2010-2022)
- NFL home teams commit 0.3 fewer turnovers per game on average
- Since 2015, NFL home win percentage is 55.8% in dome stadiums
- NFL home teams win 59% of games in cold weather (<32F)
- In NFL divisional games, home teams win 61.2% (2000-2023)
- NFL home QBs have 2.1% higher completion percentage
- Home teams cover the spread 51.4% in NFL regular season (1990-2022)
- NFL home rushing yards advantage: +12.4 per game (2015-2023)
- In NFL primetime games, home win % is 54.7%
- NFL home teams penalized 0.8 fewer times per game
- Super Bowl era NFL home win %: 57.8%
- NFL home teams win 60.3% of Thanksgiving games
- Post-COVID (2021-2023) NFL home win % dropped to 53.2%
- NFL AFC home teams win 56.9% vs NFC 57.7%
- Home field leads to +1.8 EPA per game in NFL
- NFL rookie QBs have 5% lower home win % adjustment
- In NFL overtime, home teams win 52.6%
- NFL home teams 3rd down conversion +4.2%
- 2023 NFL home win %: 56.1%
- NFL dome vs outdoor home advantage: 55% vs 58%
- NFL home teams win 62% of Monday Night Football
- NFL international games show 50% home win (neutral)
- NFL home pass defense allows -15 yards/game
- Historical NFL home win streak advantage +15%
- NFL 4th quarter home scoring +2.1 pts
- NFL bye week home teams win 59.4%
- NFL grass vs turf home win %: 57.5% vs 56.8%
NFL Interpretation
Soccer
- Premier League soccer home win 45.2% (1992-2023)
- World Cup soccer home nation win +10% advantage
- La Liga home win %: 47.1%
- Champions League home win 48.3% (1992-2023)
- MLS home win 47.8%
- Serie A home win 44.9%
- Bundesliga home win 46.5%
- International soccer home win 60% qualifiers
- Ligue 1 home win 45.7%
- Empty stadiums COVID soccer home win dropped to 39%
- Eredivisie home win 48.2%
- Copa Libertadores home win 52.1%
- Brazilian Serie A home 49.3%
- Soccer penalty kicks home awarded +12%
- High altitude soccer (Bolivia) home win 65%
- EPL top 6 home win 55%, bottom 55% no diff
- 2022 World Cup (Qatar neutral) home-like 45%
- Soccer corners home +1.2 per game
- Scottish Premiership home win 47.6%
- A-League Australia home 50.1%
- J-League home win 44.8%
- MLS playoffs home win 55.4%
- Soccer yellow cards away +0.3 per game
Soccer Interpretation
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