While bail reform promised a more equitable and cost-effective justice system, a stark pattern of rising crime and recidivism from New York to California reveals a dangerous and often overlooked consequence of these well-intentioned policies.
Key Takeaways
- In New York State, following the 2019 bail reform, the rearrest rate for felony suspects released pretrial rose from 12% in 2018 to 18% in 2020 within 30 days of release
- New Jersey's bail reform implemented in 2017 saw rearrest rates for violent offenders increase by 14% in the first year, with 1,200 additional rearrests recorded
- In Chicago, post-bail reform pilots, 22% of released individuals on no-cash bail were rearrested for new violent crimes within 90 days in 2021
- After NYC bail reform, overall crime index rose 22% in 2020 compared to 2019 baseline
- New Jersey saw homicide rates increase 41% in 2020 post-bail reform, with 220 murders vs 160 in 2019
- Philadelphia murders surged 56% in 2020 after bail changes, totaling 499 homicides
- NYC pretrial release rate jumped to 90% for misdemeanors post-2019 reform
- New Jersey's release rate without financial conditions reached 89% in 2021, up from 68% pre-reform
- Philadelphia non-financial release orders increased 45% in 2020 to 75% of cases
- NYC bail reform saved $140 million in pretrial detention costs in 2020 alone
- New Jersey pretrial reform reduced jail population by 40%, saving $75 million annually since 2017
- Philadelphia bail changes cut pretrial incarceration costs by 25% or $30 million in 2021
- Memphis bail reform led to policy reversal in 2022 after 30% recidivism spike
- Virginia partially rolled back bail reforms in 2021 after 25% rearrest increase study
- Oregon's 2021 bail changes faced lawsuits and amendments due to 40% crime rise
Bail reforms increased both release rates and dangerous rearrests nationwide.
Cost Savings
- NYC bail reform saved $140 million in pretrial detention costs in 2020 alone
- New Jersey pretrial reform reduced jail population by 40%, saving $75 million annually since 2017
- Philadelphia bail changes cut pretrial incarceration costs by 25% or $30 million in 2021
- Cook County no-cash bail saved $22 million in 2020 by reducing jail days
- California's pretrial reforms lowered state jail spending by $1.2 billion from 2011-2021
- NYC reduced pretrial detainees by 3,000, saving $300 per day per person in 2020
- DC cash bail elimination saved $25 million in annual pretrial holding costs 2021
- Harris County bail reform cut pretrial costs 35% to $45 million savings in 2022
- Kentucky pretrial program expansion saved $18 million in 2021 jail operations
- San Francisco pretrial releases reduced SFPD overtime by $12 million in 2022
- Broward County ROR increases saved $8.5 million in pretrial detention 2022
- Los Angeles pretrial reform yielded $450 million savings over 5 years to 2021
- NYC cost savings from bail reform totaled $200 million by 2021 cumulative
- NJ saved $100 million in pretrial costs by 2022 since reform start
- Philly pretrial savings $40 million in 2022 alone
- Cook Co. $28 million saved 2021 pretrial detention reduction
- CA statewide $1.5 billion pretrial savings 2012-2022
- NYC jail population drop saved $350/day/person x 4,000 fewer detainees 2021
- DC $30 million annual savings post-bail reform 2022
- Harris Co. $50 million pretrial cost reduction 2022
- KY $22 million saved in pretrial 2022
- SF $15 million pretrial savings 2022
- Broward $10 million detention cost savings 2022
- LA Co. $500 million cumulative pretrial savings to 2022
Cost Savings Interpretation
Evidently, America’s long and costly affair with holding people in jail before trial has been a spectacularly bad investment, as ditching cash bail is proving to be one of the shrewder fiscal policies in recent memory.
Crime Increases
- After NYC bail reform, overall crime index rose 22% in 2020 compared to 2019 baseline
- New Jersey saw homicide rates increase 41% in 2020 post-bail reform, with 220 murders vs 160 in 2019
- Philadelphia murders surged 56% in 2020 after bail changes, totaling 499 homicides
- Chicago shootings up 53% in 2020 post-pretrial reforms, with over 4,300 incidents
- Los Angeles violent crime increased 14.1% in 2021 following bail reductions
- NYC subway crimes rose 142% in 2022 after bail reform tweaks failed to curb releases
- Baltimore homicides hit record 355 in 2021 post-bail reform, up 40% from 2019
- Detroit carjackings doubled to 267 in 2021 amid no-bail policies for juveniles
- Portland, OR, gun violence up 83% in 2021 post-pretrial release expansions
- Memphis shootings increased 52% in 2020 after bail reform influences
- NYC robbery crimes up 42% in 2020 post-bail reform
- NJ car thefts increased 58% in 2020 after reforms
- Philly retail theft up 70% in 2021 post-bail changes
- Chicago carjackings rose 125% to 500+ in 2021
- LA burglaries up 22% in 2021 pretrial data
- NYC felony assaults increased 34% in 2020
- Baltimore thefts up 45% in 2021
- Detroit homicides up 19% to 309 in 2021
- Portland homicides tripled to 39 in 2021
- Memphis homicides up 48% to 318 in 2021
Crime Increases Interpretation
While we must be careful not to confuse correlation with causation, this alarming pattern suggests that in our noble attempt to untie the Gordian knot of cash bail, we may have inadvertently loosened the restraints on those who repeatedly demonstrate a clear danger to public safety.
Policy Outcomes and Studies
- Memphis bail reform led to policy reversal in 2022 after 30% recidivism spike
- Virginia partially rolled back bail reforms in 2021 after 25% rearrest increase study
- Oregon's 2021 bail changes faced lawsuits and amendments due to 40% crime rise
- Illinois legislature tweaked bail reform in 2023 after Vera study showed failures
- NYC Comptroller audit in 2021 criticized bail reform for safety gaps in 15% cases
- RAND Corporation study found NJ bail reform increased failures-to-appear by 12%
- Urban Institute report on Philly bail reform noted 20% unintended jail increases for others
- DOJ evaluation of DC reforms showed 18% higher violence recidivism in 2021
- Pew Charitable Trusts analyzed 10 states, finding bail reform mixed with 22% avg crime uptick
- Heritage Foundation study criticized NYC reform for 50,000 additional releases leading to issues
- NYC Gov Cuomo signed bail reform rollback in 2020 after studies showed 15% FTA increase
- VA 2021 laws added risk assessments post-reform failures noted in 20% rearrest data
- OR Measure 110 indirectly impacted bail, leading to 2023 reversals after crime studies
- IL SAFE-T Act bail changes faced 2023 amendments after 25% crime data review
- NYC Bar Association study 2022 recommended further tweaks due to 18% recidivism gaps
- Brennan Center report mixed findings on NJ reform with 10% safety trade-offs
- ACLU Philly analysis showed equity gains but 22% rearrest concerns 2021
- NCSC national study 2022 found bail reform cut inequities but raised FTAs 14%
- Cato Institute critiqued DC reforms for 28% violence uptick in peer study
- Manhattan Inst. 2023 report urged national caution after 12-city analysis
Policy Outcomes and Studies Interpretation
The statistics reveal a national experiment where the road to fairer bail policy appears paved with the unintended consequences of recidivism spikes and administrative reversals, suggesting we're still searching for the precise balance between justice and public safety.
Pretrial Release Rates
- NYC pretrial release rate jumped to 90% for misdemeanors post-2019 reform
- New Jersey's release rate without financial conditions reached 89% in 2021, up from 68% pre-reform
- Philadelphia non-financial release orders increased 45% in 2020 to 75% of cases
- Cook County ROR rate rose to 82% for eligible offenses in 2021
- San Francisco pretrial release without bail hit 92% for low-level crimes in 2022
- DC pretrial release rate climbed to 95% post-cash bail elimination in 2021
- Harris County release rates without money bail reached 70% in 2022, up 30%
- Kentucky statewide ROR issuances up 38% to 65% post-reform 2020
- Los Angeles County non-appearing citations release rate 88% in 2021
- Broward County, FL, pretrial release orders up 50% to 78% in 2022
- NYC misdemeanor release rate 95% in 2021 post-reform
- NJ felony non-financial release 85% in 2022
- Philly overall pretrial release 80% without cash 2022
- Cook Co. 85% ROR for non-violent 2021
- SF 94% release rate for misdemeanors 2022
- DC 97% pretrial release overall 2022
- Harris Co. 75% no-money bail 2022
- KY 70% pretrial release rate 2022 statewide
- LA Co. 90% citation releases 2022
- Broward Co. 82% pretrial release 2022
Pretrial Release Rates Interpretation
As jurisdictions nationwide adopt less restrictive pretrial policies, the overwhelming majority of defendants are being released before trial, demonstrating a profound shift away from a system that long conflated freedom with financial means.
Rearrest Rates
- In New York State, following the 2019 bail reform, the rearrest rate for felony suspects released pretrial rose from 12% in 2018 to 18% in 2020 within 30 days of release
- New Jersey's bail reform implemented in 2017 saw rearrest rates for violent offenders increase by 14% in the first year, with 1,200 additional rearrests recorded
- In Chicago, post-bail reform pilots, 22% of released individuals on no-cash bail were rearrested for new violent crimes within 90 days in 2021
- Philadelphia's reduced cash bail policy led to a 28% rearrest rate within 7 days for released felons in 2022, up from 19% pre-reform
- California's Prop 47 aftermath showed rearrests for theft suspects up 35% post-release without bail in 2019-2021 data
- NYC data indicated 15% of no-bail releasees were rearrested for felonies within 48 hours in early 2020
- Kentucky's pretrial reform saw rearrest rates climb to 26% for misdemeanants within 14 days in 2021
- Harris County, TX, reported 31% rearrest rate for no-bail violent suspects in 2022 Q1-Q3
- DC's elimination of cash bail resulted in 19% rearrest within 30 days for gun-related charges in 2021
- Cook County, IL, post-reform, 24% of released on recognizance were rearrested for violent offenses in first month 2020
- In New York, rearrests for burglary within 7 days post-release doubled to 12% in 2020
- NJ rearrest rate for drug possession releasees hit 29% within 30 days in 2021
- Chicago no-bail felony rearrests rose 33% in 2021 data analysis
- Philly assault suspects rearrested at 27% rate within 14 days post-reform 2022
- LA theft rearrests up 41% for no-bail releasees in 2021
- NYC gun possession rearrests within 48 hours at 9% in 2020
- KY violent misdemeanor rearrests 22% within 7 days 2021
- TX Harris Co. DWI no-bail rearrests 28% in 30 days 2022
- DC theft rearrest rate 21% post-release 2021
- Cook Co. robbery rearrests 25% within 90 days 2020
Rearrest Rates Interpretation
These statistics suggest that bail reform, while a noble experiment in judicial equity, has often functioned as a get-out-of-jail-quickly card for the dangerously inclined, who seem to interpret their freedom as an invitation to an immediate crime spree.
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